Venezuelan leader Maduro may seem desperate. But his loyalty vs punishment strategy is hard to crack

Venezuelan President Maduro Pivots to English Amid Growing U.S. Pressure

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, once critical of English phrases in public discourse, has dramatically shifted his stance as U.S. military pressure intensifies. In recent appearances, Maduro has been singing John Lennon’s “Imagine,” advocating for peace, and even dancing to a remix of his new English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”

This linguistic pivot comes as the Trump administration considers potential military action against Venezuela, doubling the reward for Maduro’s arrest to $50 million on narcoterrorism charges, and designating the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization.

Despite mounting external pressure, Maduro’s government has shown remarkable resilience. What opposition leaders had predicted would crack his inner circle has instead reinforced loyalty among his supporters, with no significant defections occurring despite months of increasing U.S. threats.

“The Bolivarian Revolution possesses a remarkable ability: the capacity for cohesion in the face of external pressure,” explains Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory in Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”

At the core of Maduro’s staying power is a system that severely punishes disloyalty while rewarding allegiance. Officials who remain loyal to the regime are permitted to enrich themselves through corruption networks established during Hugo Chávez’s presidency and continued under Maduro’s leadership. This approach has particularly helped Maduro maintain control over the military, which is allegedly permitted to traffic drugs, oil, wildlife, and other goods in exchange for supporting the regime.

The consequences for those who break ranks can be severe. “Prison and torture can be part of the punishment, which is usually harsher for accused wrongdoers with military affiliation,” Rodríguez notes. This carrot-and-stick approach has effectively eliminated potential challengers from within the system.

The Venezuelan opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, had hoped the military would withdraw support from Maduro following evidence that he lost the 2024 presidential election. Instead, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood firmly behind him, echoing their response to a 2019 revolt led by opposition figure Juan Guaidó.

Recent U.S. actions have included bombing suspected drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people, and President Trump declaring Venezuelan airspace “closed in its entirety.” Maduro’s government has characterized these moves as “colonial threats,” successfully rallying supporters around national sovereignty.

The loyalty of Maduro’s inner circle was directly tested when his pilot, Bitner Villegas, rejected U.S. efforts to recruit him in a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader. “We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Villegas wrote to a retired U.S. officer. “The last thing we are is traitors.”

David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for over three decades, argues that U.S. military posturing actually strengthens Maduro’s position: “This is exactly the type of thing that unifies them. What military officer in their right mind would trust the U.S. government? And more broadly, if the whole premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have to turn on Maduro and participate in regime change?”

Despite Maduro’s consolidation of power among officials, his presidency has been marked by severe political, social, and economic crisis. More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country, and millions more have fallen into poverty. Support for the ruling party has plummeted among ordinary citizens across the country.

Yet some loyal supporters remain steadfast. Zenaida Quintero, a 60-year-old school porter who witnessed Venezuela’s severe food shortages in the late 2010s, maintains her support for Maduro primarily because he was handpicked by Chávez. “I trust him,” she says. “We have to remain united. We have to defend ourselves.”

As U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hints at “additional options” for dealing with Maduro, administration officials have signaled they cannot accept an outcome where Maduro remains in power. However, the loyalty-or-punishment system that has kept Maduro in control for years appears to be holding firm, even in the face of unprecedented external pressure.