Dramatic surge in water demand predicted by 2040 puts Ohio farmers and industry on collision course

Ohio Faces Water Crisis as Agriculture, Data Centers Compete for Limited Resources

Deep inside a report on the future of water in central Ohio lies a stark warning: The region faces unprecedented competition for water resources as industrial demands skyrocket while farmers increasingly need irrigation during critical growing periods.

The 15-county Central Ohio Regional Water Study, released earlier this year by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, projects industrial water demand to increase by approximately 120% between 2021 and 2050, reaching 250 million gallons daily. Agricultural demands could reach an estimated 110 million gallons per day across the region by 2040 during the growing season.

While some of these additional billions of gallons would come from surface sources like rivers and lakes, the study indicates virtually all agricultural irrigation would tap groundwater – an additional 9.15 billion gallons annually across the 15-county region, enough to fill nearly 14,000 Olympic swimming pools. This groundwater would come from the same aquifers that municipalities and rural residents depend on for drinking water.

“Water regulation is kind of the ‘Wild West’ in Ohio,” said Jim Roberts, executive director of the Licking Regional Water District, which is expanding to meet increasing demands in fast-growing western Licking County. “Sewage treatment is a lot more regulated.”

Glenn Marzluf, general manager and CEO of Del-Co Water Company in Delaware County, was equally blunt at a recent town hall meeting in Utica, where his nonprofit cooperative is seeking new water sources: “Ohio water laws are pretty simple: You own the land, you own the water.” He told residents that if his company develops a “utility-scale” well field drawing up to 6 million gallons daily, local residents “would have little say in the matter.”

The situation represents a dramatic shift for Ohio agriculture. Most Ohio farmers have never needed to irrigate their crops, instead historically focusing on draining wetlands to create farmland.

“We’re one of only three states in the U.S. that has dryland farming, which means we farm without irrigation,” said Bryn Bird, president of Ohio Farmers Union, which represents more than 2,500 family farms. “We can grow with what God gave us. It’s a massive benefit to us and to crop yields. Even if you irrigate, you don’t have the same yields.”

However, changing climate patterns are altering this dynamic. The state study projects that Licking County farmers alone will need an estimated equivalent of 5 inches of rainwater annually for irrigation during growing season – more than a month’s worth of rain based on average precipitation.

The report was released just before Ohio experienced its third drought in three years, with 2023 seeing the driest August on record in the state. Meanwhile, industrial demand for water – especially from data centers, computer-chip manufacturers, and tech companies – is projected to increase from an insignificant amount in 2020 to over 40 million gallons daily by 2030, rising to approximately 70 million gallons by 2040 and possibly 90 million by 2050.

For context, the City of Columbus currently delivers more than 140 million gallons daily from three water treatment plants to 1.25 million people and its industrial customers. A fourth treatment plant is under construction at a cost of $1.6 billion to meet anticipated future demands.

In this environment of limited regulation, water utilities are rushing to secure future sources. Del-Co is exploring options near Utica, while Licking Regional Water District is looking for well sites near Hebron in southern Licking County and planning a water treatment facility in St. Albans Township.

Bird, who grew up in arid Colorado, finds Ohio’s approach to water resources alarming. “We are literally taking the nation’s breadbasket, where it’s most productive, most advantageous to farm, and turning it over for industrial use,” she said, adding that water protection should be a priority for the state legislature and gubernatorial candidates.

She fears the state’s water report serves mainly as a guide for industry: “That report was written to tell all of the companies where to go. The report reads like, ‘This is where the water is, so go get it,’ rather than these are the areas that need to be protected.”

The Central Ohio Regional Water Study emerged after state officials promised Intel that if it built its proposed $28 billion computer-chip manufacturing campus in Licking County, state and local agencies would secure the 6+ million gallons daily needed for production. So far, Columbus has committed to meeting these anticipated needs when Intel begins production around 2030.

State Climatologist Aaron Wilson confirms that Ohio has plenty of water, but notes that changing weather patterns mean more precipitation in spring and less in summer – exactly when growing crops need it most. “This year was a great example – a snapshot of the trend,” he said. “We had our eighth wettest April on record and our driest August on record.”

Vinayak Shedekar, assistant professor of agricultural water management at Ohio State University, provided the predictions for the state’s water study. He warns that based on current trends, agriculture could become one of the largest water users in Ohio by mid-century.

“If every year starts looking like the last two in Ohio, where does that put us?” Shedekar asked. “It’s going to rain too much when we don’t need water – more intense and more of it – and then when the farmer turns his attention to summer and fall, we’re going to be drier and warmer.”

The predicted rising temperatures and reduced rainfall during growing season creates a challenging environment for Ohio’s farmers, potentially requiring expensive irrigation systems that most have never needed before.

“We’re not saying we’re going to run out of water like the western states,” Shedekar noted, “but between June and October, central Ohio might be experiencing seasonal drought and seeing wells go dry because of irrigation demands. That’s what I’m worried about – that by 2040, in the next two to three decades – that agriculture is going to rise up as a sector that needs water to survive.”