Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty

Black Friday shopping traditions have evolved significantly over the years, but the day still maintains its position as America’s single biggest shopping event and the traditional kickoff to the holiday retail season. Gone are the days of shoppers abandoning Thanksgiving dinners for midnight store openings and physical confrontations over limited merchandise, yet the day remains a critical bellwether for the retail industry.

This year’s shopping season arrives amid complex economic headwinds. Retailers are navigating uncertain economic conditions while grappling with the impact of President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many companies have chosen to absorb portions of these additional costs rather than pass them entirely to consumers, though this has led to pullbacks in hiring across the retail sector.

Consumer sentiment reflects these challenges. The Conference Board reported this month that consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest point since April, when Trump first announced his tariff plans. The decline comes in the wake of a government shutdown, weak employment numbers, and persistent inflation pressures.

Despite these concerns, American shoppers have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy reported solid quarterly sales, though executives note customers are increasingly focused on value and have become more selective in their purchases.

For shoppers like Aron Boxer of Greenwich, Connecticut, tariff concerns have influenced major purchasing decisions. “The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it,” said the 50-year-old business owner who delayed buying a car this year. Boxer plans to hunt for toy deals on Cyber Monday but is prepared to wait for deeper discounts.

Mall executives and retail analysts report encouraging momentum heading into the crucial shopping weekend. “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at Minnesota’s Mall of America, which plans to offer gift cards and other incentives to early Black Friday shoppers. Renslow noted that recent Saturday mall traffic has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

The National Retail Federation projects holiday spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, representing growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over last year’s $976 billion. Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.6% increase for the period from November 1 through December 24, slightly below last year’s 4.1% growth.

“Clearly, there’s uncertainty. Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season,” said Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer.

Early online spending data supports this optimism. Adobe Analytics reports consumers spent $79.7 billion online from November 1 to last Sunday, a 7.5% increase over the same period last year—significantly outpacing Adobe’s season forecast of 5.3% growth.

Tariffs have forced retailers to adjust their merchandising and pricing strategies. Many accelerated holiday inventory shipments before tariff implementation and have absorbed some additional import costs. However, consumers are still seeing price increases on certain products, particularly those sourced predominantly from China, such as toys.

Market research firm Circana found that 40% of general merchandise sold in September experienced price increases of at least 5% compared to the first four months of the year. Toys were especially affected, with 83% seeing price hikes of 5% or more—up dramatically from 32% in June.

Retail executives have noticed more conservative discounting strategies this season. Mall of America’s Renslow observed that holiday deals appeared later than anticipated, with current discounts typically ranging from 30% to 50%. Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping centers, sees a potential upside to the tariff situation: “The inventory levels for the retailers are leaner, and they’ve tried to allow themselves to keep pricing power.”

As the critical Black Friday weekend unfolds, both retailers and economists will be watching closely to see if consumer resilience can overcome economic uncertainties and deliver the projected holiday sales growth.