AP mapping shows France’s poorest regions backing Le Pen’s party as support for Macron wanes

In a pivotal moment on May 7, 2017, Emmanuel Macron addressed cheering supporters after his presidential victory in France with a promise that has since disintegrated. Facing down Marine Le Pen, who had secured an unprecedented 10.6 million votes for her far-right National Front party, Macron pledged to win over her supporters so they would “no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes.”

Seven years later, that promise lies in tatters. Le Pen’s National Rally party—rebranded in 2018 to distance itself from the toxic legacy of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen—has become France’s largest parliamentary force and appears closer than ever to winning power in the 2027 elections.

Le Pen’s political ascendancy stems from multiple factors. The 57-year-old has successfully polished her image, presenting herself as a more moderate and relatable figure than her father, who died in January after accumulating multiple convictions for inciting racial hatred and Holocaust denial during his political career.

More significantly, Le Pen has capitalized on deepening economic discontent that has intensified during Macron’s tenure. Since the former investment banker took office, an additional 1.2 million French citizens have fallen below the poverty threshold in Europe’s third-largest economy. Critics have labeled Macron “president of the rich” for slashing business taxes and diluting wealth taxes to attract investment.

The numbers paint a stark picture. When Macron took power, France’s poverty rate stood at 13.8%, having remained relatively stable during Socialist François Hollande’s presidency. By 2023, well into Macron’s second term, that figure had jumped to 15.4%—the highest level in nearly three decades of measurement, according to the French national statistics agency.

“We clearly see that the National Rally vote is very strongly correlated with issues of poverty, of difficulties with social mobility,” explains Luc Rouban, a senior researcher at Sciences Po who studies the party. The connection is particularly evident among voters “who are most pessimistic about the future of their children or their personal situation.”

A mapping analysis by The Associated Press reveals the parallel growth of poverty and Le Pen’s support, particularly in deindustrialized northeastern regions and along France’s Mediterranean coast—areas that have become National Rally strongholds.

The party’s momentum has accelerated dramatically in recent elections. After triumphing in the 2024 European Parliament elections, National Rally further consolidated its position when Macron, stunned by his party’s poor performance, dissolved the National Assembly. Though falling short of a majority in the resulting legislative election, National Rally secured 123 of 577 parliamentary seats, eclipsing all other parties and building on its previous best showing of 89 legislators in 2022.

François Ouzilleau, who unsuccessfully ran for Macron’s party in 2022, puts it bluntly: National Rally “feeds off anger and people’s problems.”

But poverty alone doesn’t explain Le Pen’s appeal. The party maintains its focus on immigration restriction—a cornerstone of its platform since its founding. Rouban sees clear parallels with Donald Trump’s political playbook: “They’re doing Trump-ism à la française. They say, ‘We’re wary of the justice system,’ like Trump. ‘We’re taking back control of our national borders,’ like Trump.”

The southern Var region exemplifies National Rally’s growing influence. Long characterized by above-average poverty rates, Var shifted dramatically toward Le Pen’s party. In 2017, the party won no seats there; by 2022 and again in 2024, National Rally captured seven of eight available seats.

“The French have clearly understood that the ones defending the purchasing power of the working and middle classes are the National Rally,” argues Laure Lavalette, a parliamentary spokesperson for the party who represents the Var region. She describes constituents who must “choose between eating or heating.”

The 2024 legislative elections produced a deeply fragmented parliament, resulting in unstable minority governments. While National Rally hoped Macron would dissolve parliament again—potentially allowing them to form their first government—the president has refrained, likely fearing the prospect of working with a National Rally prime minister for his remaining time in office.

For now, enough lawmakers have rallied around Macron’s current prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, to keep his government functioning, conscious that new elections could cost them their seats.

“There’s a sword of Damocles hanging over us, it’s called the National Rally,” Ouzilleau warns. After decades of mainstream party dominance, voters increasingly express willingness to give Le Pen’s party a chance. The refrain Ouzilleau hears with growing frequency encapsulates this shift: “We’ve tried everything except the National Rally, so what is the risk?”