A look at the Thanksgiving shopping weekend and what’s next

Holiday Shopping Surge Defies Economic Uncertainty as Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Boom

Despite lingering economic anxieties, American consumers flocked to stores and online retailers during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, delivering robust sales figures that have energized the retail sector. The shopping period, which ran from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, saw consumers actively hunting for deals across multiple channels, though with more strategic purchasing behaviors than in previous years.

Adobe Analytics reported Tuesday that “Cyber Week” generated $44.2 billion in online sales, representing a 7.7% increase from last year. Cyber Monday alone accounted for $14.25 billion in spending, a 7.1% jump from 2023, cementing its position as the year’s biggest online shopping day.

“The holidays is really very much an emotional purchase,” said Matt Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF). “Families plan for it. They invest in it. And as a component of the holidays, the five-day Thanksgiving weekend is really the psychological kickoff of the holidays.”

The NRF maintains its forecast for holiday season sales between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, which would represent growth of 3.7% to 4.2% compared to last year. This projected growth indicates resilience in consumer spending despite broader economic concerns.

Physical retail also saw impressive traffic numbers. Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota reported more than 235,000 visitors on Black Friday, making it the busiest Black Friday in the mall’s history. This figure represented an 8.5% increase from last year and was nearly 2% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, overall Black Friday sales excluding automotive rose 4.1% from last year. This retail sales indicator showed online sales jumped 10.4%, while in-store purchases increased by a more modest 1.7%.

Retailers noticed a shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers approaching the weekend with greater intentionality. William Lewis, marketing director of Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, New Jersey, observed that customers were “definitely buying” but with more targeted approaches. “People are more targeted and have done their homework ahead of time on social media or store sites,” Lewis noted. “They know exactly where they are going.”

Discounting strategies played a crucial role in driving sales. Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s director of Digital Insights, explained that prior to Thanksgiving weekend, discounts averaged 10% to 17%, then accelerated to 18% to 30% for the holiday kickoff. Analysts expect retailers to scale back these aggressive discounts in the coming weeks, though seasonal items may see deeper price cuts as December 25 approaches.

Inventory levels appear to be well-managed despite earlier concerns about tariff impacts. Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy at retail technology firm Aptos, noted, “I think consumers will continue to find the things that they’re looking for, but there will be fewer choices.”

This holiday season has also seen increased adoption of artificial intelligence tools for shopping assistance. Adobe reported that AI traffic to U.S. retail sites increased nearly eightfold on Cyber Monday. From November 1 through December 1, AI traffic was up nearly ninefold, with consumers particularly leveraging these tools for categories including video games, appliances, electronics, toys, and personal care products.

Salesforce reported that across Cyber Week, AI and digital shopping agents influenced 20% of all orders globally, accounting for $67 billion in sales. In the U.S., AI drove 17% of orders, representing $13.5 billion in sales.

Looking ahead, industry analysts will be closely watching consumer behavior in the period between now and Christmas. Baird indicated this stretch will be critical to determine “whether this was a concentration of spending or a trend of spending.”

Tiffany Yeh, managing director at Boston Consulting Group, expressed confidence in continued strong spending through the remainder of the holiday season, but voiced concerns about 2026. BCG’s shopper surveys suggest many consumers delayed purchases earlier in the year to preserve spending power for the holidays, raising questions about whether this pattern will continue into the new year or if spending will stabilize.