The Dark Logic of Visual Strongman Propaganda

The Visual Politics of Power: How Strongman Propaganda Influences Political Behavior

A new study spanning Venezuela, Turkey, and the United States reveals how visual propaganda depicting leaders as strongmen can significantly impact political mobilization, with effects varying based on regime type and political context.

Researchers Philipp Lutscher, Jonas Bergan Dræge, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Karsten Donnay conducted three survey experiments to examine how citizens respond to imagery projecting government strength and authority. Their findings, published across three prestigious political science journals, offer insights into the effectiveness of such propaganda across different political systems.

The research draws parallels between autocratic visual communication strategies and similar approaches emerging in democratic contexts. Recent examples include U.S. President Donald Trump’s visual messaging on immigration enforcement and his administration’s imagery during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests, which researchers note bears resemblance to propaganda techniques employed by figures like Venezuela’s former president Nicolas Maduro and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“What is the purpose of this heavy-handed visual strongman propaganda? How does the public perceive and react to it?” the researchers asked, seeking to understand whether such imagery effectively strengthens public perception of government power.

Unlike more subtle propaganda aimed at persuasion, the researchers identify that this “hard propaganda” primarily serves to project dominance and deter opposition. Their findings show this approach works differently depending on political context.

In Venezuela and Turkey during politically stable periods, exposure to strongman propaganda decreased opposition supporters’ willingness to join anti-government protests by six to seven percentage points. However, during Turkey’s heated 2023 electoral campaign, this deterrent effect completely disappeared, suggesting the approach fails when opposition forces are already mobilized.

The United States presented a striking contrast. During the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests, hard visual propaganda actually backfired among government opponents, increasing rather than decreasing their willingness to protest. This indicates democratic systems may generate resistance to authoritarian-style messaging, particularly in polarized societies.

The researchers delved deeper into the emotional responses triggered by such propaganda in Turkey. Government opponents reported increased feelings of anxiety and anger when exposed to power-projecting propaganda. Yet surprisingly, the propaganda also increased their sense of societal belonging, suggesting these often nationalistic visual messages may persuade some opponents.

For government supporters, the effect was more straightforward—exposure increased willingness to join pro-government demonstrations, an effect that intensified during politically contested periods when autocratic leaders benefit most from mobilizing their base.

“Our research helps understand information control, autocratic politics, and democratic backsliding,” the authors note. They highlight that while hard visual propaganda is effective in competitive autocratic regimes, its power to deter opposition weakens during periods of crisis and mobilization. Furthermore, in polarized electoral settings, such propaganda serves a dual purpose of deterring opponents while rallying supporters.

For U.S. democracy, the results present a mixed picture. Democratic institutions protected the right to protest during the 2020 unrest, with government opponents mobilizing against rather than being intimidated by strongman imagery. However, the researchers found no evidence that Trump supporters rejected such propaganda techniques.

The findings have particular relevance as authoritarian-style communication strategies continue to appear in democratic contexts. As polarization increases globally, understanding how visual propaganda influences political behavior becomes increasingly important for predicting political mobilization and safeguarding democratic norms.

The study contributes to a growing body of research on information control and its role in democratic backsliding, providing empirical evidence of how visual communication strategies can shape political landscapes across different regime types.