Venezuela’s Post-Maduro Era Marked by Power Struggles and Uncertainty

As Venezuela enters the post-Nicolas Maduro era, former officials and regional experts warn the country may face not a democratic transition, but a period of deeper instability and internal conflict between potential successors that could prove even more dangerous than Maduro’s regime.

Marshall Billingslea, former assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes in the U.S. Treasury Department, describes Venezuela’s power structure as a fractured system that was never controlled by a single strongman, but by competing criminal power centers now operating independently.

“The cartel has always been a loose association, with each of the mafia bosses having their own centers of gravity,” Billingslea explained. “Maduro was the frontman, but he didn’t exercise total control. Now we’re seeing each of those centers spinning off on their own.”

Billingslea noted that the capture of Cilia Flores, Maduro’s wife, was equally significant to Maduro’s removal. “She was the brains behind the operation and the one who cleared out potential rivals,” he said. “Her removal leaves a huge power vacuum in the cartel.”

This vacuum has created a high risk of internal power struggles, violence, and increased repression as rival factions maneuver to secure control. Billingslea outlines five competing power centers now vying for dominance in Venezuela’s volatile political landscape.

Delcy Rodríguez’s Uncertain Leadership

Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s longtime vice president, was quickly installed as interim leader. However, her ascension has done little to reassure Venezuelans or international observers that meaningful change is forthcoming.

Deeply embedded in the Maduro system, Rodríguez has long played a central role in overseeing Venezuela’s internal intelligence and security apparatus. According to regional reporting, her focus since taking office has been consolidating control within those institutions rather than signaling political reform.

Former U.S. officials point to Rodríguez’s deep ties with Cuban intelligence, which helped build and operate Venezuela’s internal security and surveillance apparatus over the past two decades. Cuban operatives played a critical role in shaping how the regime monitored dissent and protected senior leadership.

While Rodríguez appears to be testing cooperation with Washington, analysts view her limited engagement with U.S. demands as tactical, aimed at buying time while she works to secure loyalty inside the regime and neutralize rival factions. A former Venezuelan official previously described Rodríguez as someone who “hates the West” and represents continuity with the Maduro regime, not a break from it.

Competing Power Centers Emerge

Diosdado Cabello, one of the most feared figures in Venezuela, has emerged as a central player in the post-Maduro scramble for control. Wielding influence over the ruling party and interior security forces, Cabello has been rallying armed colectivos and loyalist groups, which have been active in detaining opponents and reinforcing regime authority through intimidation.

Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for corruption and alleged ties to drug-trafficking networks, Cabello is widely viewed as capable of consolidating power through force rather than institutions.

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and brother of Delcy Rodríguez, remains one of the regime’s most important political operators. As a key strategist for Maduro, he oversaw communications, elections, and internal coordination. Recent reports indicate he continues to work closely with his sister to maintain control over intelligence and security structures.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, long considered the backbone of Maduro’s survival, also remains a critical figure. While Padrino López has not publicly positioned himself as a successor, analysts note that the armed forces are no longer unified behind a single leader. Senior generals are split across competing factions, raising the risk of internal clashes or a shift toward overt military rule if civilian authority weakens further.

The Risk of Wider Instability

Beyond the power struggle among regime elites, Venezuela faces broader dangers. Large parts of the country are already influenced by criminal syndicates and armed groups. As centralized authority weakens, these actors could exploit the vacuum, expanding control over territory and smuggling routes.

Security experts warn that an uncontrolled collapse could unleash forces more violent and less predictable than Maduro’s centralized repression, and current events suggest that risk is growing.

Outside the regime, opposition leader María Corina Machado remains the most popular political figure among Venezuelan voters. However, popularity alone may not translate into power. Machado lacks control over security forces, intelligence agencies, or armed groups. As repression intensifies and rival factions maneuver, her ability to convert public support into political authority remains uncertain.

For Venezuelans, Maduro’s fall did not dismantle the country’s power structure—it fractured it. With armed loyalists in the streets, rival factions competing behind the scenes, and an interim leader struggling to assert authority, Venezuela now faces a dangerous period in which the aftermath of Maduro’s rule could prove more chaotic—and potentially more brutal—than what came before.

The question is no longer whether Maduro is gone, but whether anything that replaces him will bring positive change to a country devastated by years of economic mismanagement, corruption, and political repression.