UN watchdog hasn’t been able to verify Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons grade uranium in months

The International Atomic Energy Agency has lost track of Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium stockpile following military strikes by Israel and the United States during a 12-day conflict in June, according to a confidential IAEA report circulated to member states on Wednesday.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog warned it has “lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the previously declared inventories of nuclear material in Iran” at facilities damaged during the conflict. The agency emphasized that this verification gap, now stretching over five months, is “long overdue” and must be “urgently addressed.”

Before the disruption in monitoring, the IAEA’s last assessment in September documented that Iran maintained approximately 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity—just a technical step away from the 90% enrichment level considered weapons-grade.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently told the Associated Press that this stockpile could potentially enable Iran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs if Tehran decided to weaponize its program, though he clarified this doesn’t mean Iran currently possesses such weapons. While Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program serves peaceful purposes, the IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have determined that Tehran operated an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003.

Under its safeguards agreement with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Iran is obligated to produce a “special report” detailing the location and current status of its nuclear material, including highly enriched uranium, following significant events such as military attacks. This report must also address the condition of facilities affected by the June conflict.

“The provision of such a report is indispensable for the Agency to provide assurances that nuclear material subject to safeguards in Iran remains in peaceful nuclear activities and that the facilities subject to safeguards are not being misused,” the IAEA stated in Wednesday’s report.

Iran has thus far declined to submit this required special report. In a November 11 letter to the IAEA, Iranian officials indicated that “any cooperation with the Agency is conditional on the decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) of Iran,” effectively placing nuclear transparency under direct control of the country’s highest security body.

The impasse extends beyond documentation, as Iran has also denied IAEA inspectors access to sites damaged during the conflict. Tehran did, however, permit inspections of undamaged facilities after Grossi negotiated an agreement with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Cairo in early September. Facilities that have remained accessible include the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the Tehran Research Reactor, and three other nuclear sites in Tehran.

According to the report, IAEA inspectors are traveling to Iran on Wednesday to conduct inspections at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, located approximately 350 kilometers (215 miles) southeast of Tehran. This significant facility employs thousands of nuclear scientists and houses three Chinese research reactors along with laboratories integral to Iran’s atomic program. During the June conflict, Israeli forces struck buildings at the Isfahan site, including a uranium conversion facility, while the United States also targeted the location with missile strikes.

Iran’s relationship with the IAEA has deteriorated sharply since the conflict. After initially suspending all cooperation with the agency, Tehran briefly resumed inspections following the Cairo agreement negotiated by Grossi and Araghchi in September. However, later that month, the United Nations reimposed sanctions on Iran, triggering an angry response from Tehran and prompting the country to halt implementation of the Cairo arrangement.

The reimposition of U.N. sanctions came after European powers activated the “snapback” mechanism in response to Iran’s failure to enter direct talks with the United States, restore full cooperation with the IAEA, and clarify the status of its near weapons-grade uranium stockpile.

These sanctions have further isolated Iran internationally by freezing Iranian assets abroad, halting arms deals with Tehran, and penalizing development of the country’s ballistic missile program, among other measures. This has intensified pressure on Iran’s already struggling economy, which has been further weakened by the military strikes against its nuclear infrastructure during the 12-day war with Israel.

Despite the current standoff, Iran remains legally obligated to cooperate with the IAEA under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, to which it is a signatory.