Russia to Honor Expired New START Nuclear Treaty if US Reciprocates

Russia has agreed to abide by the limits of the expired New START nuclear arms treaty as long as the United States follows suit, marking a pivotal moment in global nuclear security policy. The treaty, which expired on February 5, had been the last remaining restraint on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.

The expiration leaves the United States and Russia without mutual nuclear weapons restrictions for the first time in more than half a century, raising concerns about a potential unconstrained arms race between the global superpowers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously indicated in September that Russia would honor the treaty’s limitations for another year beyond its expiration date, provided the U.S. maintained the same commitment. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reinforced this position when speaking to lawmakers, saying Moscow would “act in a responsible and balanced way” based on analysis of U.S. military policies.

“We have reason to believe that the United States is in no hurry to abandon these limits and that they will be observed for the foreseeable future,” Lavrov stated. He added that Russia would “closely monitor how things are actually unfolding” and expressed willingness to work on a new agreement if the U.S. demonstrates interest in continued cooperation.

President Donald Trump, however, has criticized the treaty, describing it on Truth Social as “a badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated.” Instead of extending the existing framework, Trump called for nuclear experts to develop “a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”

Trump has previously insisted that China should be included in any new nuclear arms agreement, a condition Beijing has rejected. This stance complicates the path forward for a successor treaty in an increasingly multipolar nuclear landscape.

The New START Treaty, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, came into force on February 5, 2011. It established crucial limits on strategic nuclear arsenals: 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and nuclear-capable heavy bombers; 1,550 deployed warheads; and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers.

These limitations had successfully capped the nuclear capabilities of both nations for over a decade, providing a measure of strategic stability and predictability in U.S.-Russia relations despite other tensions.

The treaty’s expiration comes at a particularly delicate moment in international security, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East heightening geopolitical tensions. Nuclear arms control experts have warned that without formal verification mechanisms and mutual inspections, transparency between the two nuclear powers could erode over time.

According to reports from Axios, U.S. and Russian officials recently met in Abu Dhabi and were working toward a deal to observe the treaty for at least six months after its expiration, during which time negotiations for a new agreement would take place. However, no formal announcement of such an arrangement has been made.

The uncertainty surrounding nuclear arms control comes as both nations are modernizing their nuclear forces. Russia has been developing new delivery systems, including hypersonic weapons, while the U.S. is updating its nuclear triad of submarines, bombers, and land-based missiles.

Arms control experts emphasize that even informal adherence to the treaty’s limitations would be preferable to no constraints at all, given the destabilizing effects an unrestricted nuclear arms race could have on global security and defense spending.

Without a replacement treaty, the international community will be watching closely to see whether both nations maintain their verbal commitments to nuclear restraint or begin expanding their strategic arsenals beyond the previously agreed limits.