Off the ballot, Ugandan president’s son waits in the wings this election

One figure looms large ahead of Uganda’s elections this Thursday, although he is not on the ballot: President Yoweri Museveni’s son and military commander, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

While the 81-year-old Museveni seeks a seventh term that would extend his rule closer to five decades, his son’s shadow dominates the political landscape. As a four-star general appointed by his father nearly two years ago, Kainerugaba serves as the country’s top military commander and chief enforcer of his father’s rule in this East African nation.

Kainerugaba’s appointment as army chief temporarily paused his political ambitions—at least, critics say, for as long as Museveni wishes to remain in power. Many Ugandans now appear resigned to the prospect of hereditary rule, a scenario once vehemently denied by government officials who dismissed claims of a “Muhoozi Project” for leadership succession.

The president’s son has been increasingly transparent about his presidential ambitions. “I will be President of Uganda after my father,” he declared on social platform X in 2023. “Those fighting the truth will be very disappointed.”

Kainerugaba’s grip on power has strengthened considerably in recent years. His allies now occupy strategic command positions across Uganda’s security services. As the presumed heir to the presidency, he receives loyalty pledges from candidates seeking even minor political offices.

His rapid rise through military ranks has been controversial since joining the armed forces in the late 1990s. In February 2024, just a month before naming Kainerugaba army chief, President Museveni officially delegated some of his commander-in-chief authority to the head of the military.

This unprecedented power transfer gives Kainerugaba authority previously reserved for the president, including promoting high-ranking army officers and creating new military departments. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Uganda’s Makerere University, notes that Kainerugaba wields more influence than any previous army chief.

“Honestly, I don’t see a way out through constitutional means,” Ndebesa said, adding that elections are “just wasting time, legitimizing authority but not intended as a democratic goal… Any change from Museveni will be determined by the military high command.”

A personality cult has emerged around Kainerugaba, with some Ugandans staging public celebrations of his birthday. Campaign posters for parliamentary candidates frequently feature the emblem of Kainerugaba’s political group, the Patriotic League of Uganda. Speaker of Parliament Anita Among last year referred to him as “God the Son,” underscoring his political ascendance in a country where the military reigns supreme and Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement lacks obvious successors.

Some analysts believe Kainerugaba is positioned to take control in the event of a disorderly transition from his aging father. Yusuf Serunkuma, an academic and independent analyst, wrote in the local Observer newspaper that he has “endlessly appealed to Muhoozi Kainerugaba to, at least, pretend to coup his dad, become the opposition hero, and accuse the old man of all the crimes the general Kampala public accuses him of.”

Supporters portray Kainerugaba as humble in private and critical of the corruption that has plagued his father’s government. They argue he offers Uganda the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power—something the country hasn’t experienced since independence from British colonial rule in 1962.

Critics, however, point to Kainerugaba’s troubling behavior, particularly his inflammatory social media presence. He has threatened to behead opposition leader Bobi Wine and called for Kizza Besigye, another opposition figure jailed on alleged treason charges, to be hanged “in broad daylight” for supposedly plotting to kill Museveni. In 2022, Kainerugaba was briefly removed from his military duties after threatening on X to capture Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, within two weeks.

Wine, in a recent Associated Press interview, claimed Kainerugaba’s army “has largely taken over the election” and that his supporters face violence and beatings from soldiers. Amnesty International recently reported that security forces were engaging in a “brutal campaign of repression” ahead of the elections, citing a November 28 incident where one person died after the military blocked an exit and opened fire on a crowd at a rally by Wine’s National Unity Platform in eastern Uganda.

Frank Gashumba, a Kainerugaba ally and vice chairman of the Patriotic League of Uganda, dismissed Wine’s claims, saying he was “exaggerating the threat” and “lacking the limelight.”

Only one senior member of Museveni’s party has publicly challenged the prospect of hereditary rule. Kahinda Otafiire, a retired major general who fought alongside Museveni during the guerrilla war that brought him to power in 1986, urged Kainerugaba to pursue leadership based on merit rather than inheritance.

“Let there be fair competition, including Gen. Muhoozi. Let him prove to Ugandans that he is capable, not as Museveni’s son but as he, Muhoozi, who is competent to manage the country,” said Otafiire, who serves as Uganda’s interior minister.