Italian Premier Meloni could benefit at home from rift with Trump

Italian Premier Meloni and Trump’s Once-Promising Alliance Shows Signs of Strain

The relationship between Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni and U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be deteriorating rapidly, despite once-strong ties that positioned Meloni as Europe’s potential bridge to the American leader.

In a recent interview with leading Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Trump openly criticized Meloni after she condemned his comments about Pope Leo XIV as “unacceptable” and refused to support the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran.

“I thought she had courage,” Trump told the publication. “I was wrong.”

The public rebuke marks a significant shift in what was previously considered one of Trump’s closest European alliances. Trump reinforced his displeasure in a subsequent Fox News appearance, stating, “She’s been negative. Anybody that turned us down to helping with this Iran situation, we do not have the same relationship.”

Meloni has not directly responded to Trump’s criticisms. Political analysts suggest the public discord might actually benefit the Italian premier domestically as she works to recover from a decisive referendum defeat last month and navigate the political challenges presented by the deeply unpopular Iran conflict.

“I actually think this is a godsend for her,” said Nathalie Tocci, professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe and director of the International Affairs Institute. “Trump has become completely toxic across Europe, across much of the world, including Italy.”

The deterioration of the relationship represents a significant shift from expectations just 15 months ago. Meloni was the only European Union leader invited to Trump’s second inauguration, with observers anticipating she would leverage their strong personal ties after his return to office. Both leaders shared nationalistic tendencies and hard-line stances on immigration, creating what appeared to be a natural alliance.

However, Italy was not spared from Trump’s tariff policies, raising questions about the practical benefits of their relationship. When asked if they had spoken recently, Trump told Corriere, “No, not in a long time.”

The relationship became increasingly strained over Italy’s position on the Iran conflict. Meloni has firmly stated that Italy will not participate in the war, and the country recently denied U.S. bombers permission to land at a strategic air base in Sicily.

“It’s been building up over time, not so much because she is moving away from him but because he has become increasingly unhinged,” Tocci observed.

Despite the personal tensions, Italian officials insist the fundamental alliance remains intact. Cabinet minister Adolfo Urso, a member of Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party, emphasized that broader institutional relationships would not be compromised by the disagreement.

“Italy and the United States are allied countries and maintain their relationship and alliance within international institutions, starting obviously with the Atlantic Alliance,” Urso told Radio 24.

Mariangela Zappia, president of the ISPI think tank and former Italian ambassador to the U.S., suggested Trump’s reaction stems from broader frustrations with Europe rather than solely with Italy. Beyond lacking support for the Iran conflict, Trump also lost a strong ally with Viktor Orbán’s defeat in recent Hungarian elections.

“Europe absolutely considers the United States its historic ally, but in some way wants to be involved in the decisions that are taken,” Zappia explained. She added that Trump is discovering “this European Union is not easy to dismantle.”

On the domestic front, Meloni has been working to consolidate support following her referendum defeat. She recently conducted a whirlwind two-day tour of three Gulf states, seeking to secure Italy’s oil and gas supplies amid growing energy concerns, though she returned without formal agreements.

In another significant move, Meloni announced Italy would not automatically renew a defense agreement with Israel after warning shots hit an Italian convoy participating in the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon. Analysts suggest this decision was driven more by domestic political considerations than a strategic shift in policy.

“The Gulf tour was a way to show public opinion that she was being proactive. The fact it didn’t actually lead to anything is beside the point,” Tocci noted. The Israel decision “substantively is rather meaningless because there is not much in this agreement but symbolically it helps because Israel has become just so unpopular in Italian public opinion.”

Despite these efforts, Roberto D’Alimonte, a professor at the LUISS school of government, predicts challenging times ahead for Meloni before elections due in 2027, largely due to economic pressures stemming from the Iran conflict.

“People want to see their gas bills go down, not just see Meloni talk about gas. What matters are the bills you get every month,” D’Alimonte concluded.