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Far-Right Makes Gains as France’s Municipal Elections Head to Runoff
France’s far-right National Rally party secured notable victories in the first round of municipal elections across the country, particularly in southeastern regions, while most major cities including Paris remain undecided ahead of the second-round runoff. The elections, which saw voters casting ballots in approximately 35,000 communities, are widely considered a preview of France’s political landscape before the 2027 presidential election.
Turnout reached just over 57% on Sunday, higher than during the 2020 pandemic-era elections but significantly lower than the 2014 municipal vote, according to the Ministry of Interior. In about 93% of communities, mayors were elected outright in the first round, typically in smaller localities where only one or two candidates competed without party affiliation.
The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, demonstrated continued momentum in its southeastern strongholds. Louis Aliot, the party’s second-in-command, secured a commanding victory in Perpignan, while in Marseille, France’s second-largest city, the National Rally’s Franck Allisio finished in a virtual tie with incumbent left-wing mayor Benoît Payan.
Nice, on the French Riviera, saw Éric Ciotti emerge as the frontrunner. Ciotti, who broke from conservatives to form his own far-right party in 2024 with National Rally ties, is well-positioned for the runoff. Similar patterns emerged in the southern cities of Nîmes and Toulon, the latter being a significant Mediterranean naval base, where far-right candidates performed strongly.
Political negotiations are intensifying ahead of the March 22 runoff. In races where three or more candidates qualified, parties have until Tuesday evening to forge alliances by merging candidate lists. These tactical maneuvers could prove decisive in determining who controls major urban centers.
The potential for left-wing coalitions has sparked heated debate, particularly regarding cooperation between traditional leftist parties and the hard-left France Unbowed movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The once-unified left-wing alliance fractured amid accusations that France Unbowed tolerated antisemitic rhetoric, while some critics also blamed the movement for inflaming tensions following the death of a far-right militant in Lyon last month.
Despite these tensions, some case-by-case electoral pacts are emerging. In Lyon, France’s third-largest city, Green incumbent mayor Grégory Doucet has joined forces with France Unbowed candidates in a tight contest against right-wing businessman Jean-Michel Aulas, the former football club president.
Anti-racism organization SOS Racisme has urged mainstream parties to form broad coalitions specifically to block far-right advances. “No alliance should be ruled out if it helps prevent this party from taking control of new municipalities,” the group’s president Dominique Sopo stated. However, the National Rally continues to show limited support in major urban centers like Paris and Lyon.
The closely watched Paris mayoral race has left-wing candidate Emmanuel Grégoire leading after the first round, though the contest is expected to tighten significantly in the runoff against conservative challenger Rachida Dati. Dati, who recently served as France’s culture minister, aims to end 25 years of left-wing control of the capital but faces legal troubles with a corruption and influence peddling trial scheduled for September.
Grégoire, a former deputy to outgoing mayor Anne Hidalgo, heads a coalition including Socialists, Greens, and Communists but has refused to align with France Unbowed candidates who also qualified for the second round. Hidalgo, who guided Paris through the 2015 terrorist attacks and the 2024 Olympics, opted not to seek a third term.
The municipal elections carry heightened significance as the last nationwide vote before the 2027 presidential campaign. Current President Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, leaving the field wide open.
In the northern port city of Le Havre, incumbent mayor Édouard Philippe, Macron’s former prime minister, is poised to secure a runoff victory that could bolster his presidential aspirations. Meanwhile, the National Rally views mayoral victories as crucial opportunities to demonstrate governance capabilities.
Marine Le Pen, long considered a presidential frontrunner, faces legal uncertainty after being convicted of embezzlement last year and barred from holding public office for five years. Her appeal will be decided on July 7, and if the ban stands, her protégé Jordan Bardella will likely become the party’s presidential candidate. With numerous politicians across the political spectrum harboring presidential ambitions, no clear favorite has yet emerged for France’s top job.
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10 Comments
The low voter turnout is a bit concerning, though higher than the pandemic-era elections. Engagement in local politics is so important for communities. I’ll be following the second-round results closely.
While the far-right gains are concerning from a democratic perspective, I try to analyze these issues objectively as an investor. The municipal results could have implications for the 2027 presidential race, which bears watching.
These local elections are often a good barometer of national sentiment. The National Rally’s performance suggests their message is resonating, even if they didn’t sweep the major cities. Curious to see how this plays out.
While the far-right’s performance is concerning from a democratic standpoint, I think it’s important to try to understand the underlying factors driving voter sentiment. Economic conditions, social issues, and trust in institutions all play a role.
The National Rally’s strong showing, especially in their traditional strongholds, is a clear indication of the shifting political winds in France. It will be fascinating to see how the runoff elections play out in the major cities.
The National Rally’s performance in their southeastern strongholds isn’t too surprising, but the near-tie in Marseille is noteworthy. France’s political dynamics are complex and always evolving.
The National Rally’s gains, particularly in their strongholds, demonstrate the shifting tides of French politics. It will be interesting to see how this affects the policy landscape going forward, especially around issues like energy and natural resource extraction.
Voter turnout is always an interesting metric. The relatively low numbers, even with an increase from 2020, indicate some level of disengagement or apathy. That’s something policymakers should consider.
Interesting to see the National Rally make gains in the municipal elections. France’s political landscape is certainly shifting, with the far-right gaining ground. Curious to see how the runoffs play out in the major cities.
As an investor in mining and energy equities, I’m curious to see how these election results could impact commodity-related policies and regulations going forward. The geopolitical landscape is an important factor to consider.