Government will release September jobs report next week, ending data drought from federal shutdown

Federal Economic Data Drought Nears End as Labor Report Release Announced

WASHINGTON — The Labor Department announced it will release September’s employment and unemployment figures next Thursday, signifying the beginning of the end of a prolonged economic data blackout caused by the recent 43-day federal government shutdown.

The statistical void has left the Federal Reserve, businesses, policymakers, and investors largely uninformed about critical economic indicators including inflation, job creation, and GDP growth since late summer. According to analysis from Thomas Simons and Michael Bacolas at Jefferies, more than 30 important economic reports from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau were delayed due to the political impasse.

Among the casualties was the Labor Department’s weekly report on unemployment benefit claims, which went unpublished for seven consecutive weeks. This report is widely regarded as a key early indicator of labor market trends and economic health.

The only exception made during the shutdown was for the consumer price index for September, which was released nine days late on October 24. This inflation measure was deemed urgent as it determines annual cost of living adjustments for tens of millions of Americans receiving Social Security and other federal benefits.

The timing of this data interruption has been particularly problematic. President Trump’s economic policies, including significant import tariffs and deportations of undocumented workers, have created substantial uncertainty in financial markets. Meanwhile, the economy itself has presented mixed signals: while midyear growth appeared solid with low unemployment, job creation has slowed, and inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, partly due to tariff impacts.

Jefferies economist Thomas Simons projects the September employment report will show employers added approximately 65,000 jobs—an improvement from August’s weak 22,000 figure but still relatively modest. He anticipates unemployment will hold steady at 4.3%.

The data drought has sparked concern on Wall Street and intensified divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions for their December meeting. Some Fed policymakers have suggested the lack of reliable economic data as a reason to potentially postpone another interest rate reduction.

Consequently, upcoming economic reports will carry exceptional weight at the Fed, potentially resolving disagreements between officials advocating for another rate cut and those opposed. Fresh data could provide crucial clarity about the economy’s current trajectory and appropriate monetary policy response.

Even with government operations now restored, the return to normal data reporting faces complications. Kevin Hassett, a senior White House economist, indicated that only portions of October’s jobs report—originally scheduled for November 7—will eventually be published.

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely have sufficient electronically-submitted business data to calculate job gains or losses, the separate household survey used to determine the unemployment rate wasn’t conducted during the shutdown. This creates an unprecedented situation where, for the first time in 77 years, the BLS may not produce an unemployment rate for October.

White House officials have also indicated there won’t be an October inflation report due to uncollected data during the shutdown. This presents a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve as it attempts to determine whether inflation is moving toward its 2% target.

The data interruption occurred shortly after President Trump dismissed BLS Director Erika McEntarfer following the release of employment figures he found unfavorable, which showed modest job growth in July and downward revisions for May and June. However, economists maintain that upcoming reports should remain unbiased, as there are currently no political appointees at the agency after Trump withdrew his BLS director nominee on September 30.

“The data are being produced by roughly the same set of people as in the past,” noted Aaron Sojourner, senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute, suggesting the integrity of the forthcoming economic reports should remain intact despite the political tensions surrounding them.