Vance Makes Unsubstantiated Connections Between Housing Costs and Illegal Immigration

Immigration’s Limited Effect on Housing Prices, Vance Claims Disputed by Experts

Vice President JD Vance has significantly overstated both home price increases during President Biden’s term and the role of illegal immigration in driving those costs, according to an analysis of housing data and expert assessments.

In a November 13 Fox News interview, Vance claimed “the price of a new home literally doubled” under Biden’s administration. However, federal data shows a much more modest increase. The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report the median sales price of new homes rose 21.1% during Biden’s term, from $354,800 in January 2021 to $429,600 in January 2025.

Other metrics tell a similar story. The National Association of Realtors found a 37.4% increase in median prices for existing single-family homes from 2020 to 2024. The widely respected S&P Case-Shiller national home price index showed approximately a 36.9% increase during Biden’s administration – substantial growth, but far from doubling.

Vance appears to be referencing monthly mortgage costs rather than home prices themselves. When factoring in the dramatic rise in mortgage rates during Biden’s presidency – from 2.77% to 6.96% for 30-year fixed mortgages – the monthly payment for a median-priced new home increased by about 96%. This distinction is critical but was not clarified in Vance’s public statements.

More controversial is Vance’s assertion that illegal immigration drove housing unaffordability. “Why did homes get so unaffordable?” he asked during a December 2 Cabinet meeting. “Because we had 20 million illegal aliens in this country taking homes that ought by right to go to American citizens.”

Housing economists and policy experts largely disagree with this assessment, pointing to more significant factors: historically low mortgage rates during the pandemic that sparked demand, a subsequent rise in interest rates to combat inflation, and a chronic housing supply shortage dating back to the Great Recession.

Jacob Vigdor, a University of Washington professor who has researched immigration’s impact on housing, estimates that unauthorized immigration has contributed less than 1% to current median home prices. “There is a link but I would not say that immigration, illegal or otherwise, has been a ‘driving factor’ in escalating housing costs,” Vigdor explained.

Vance’s claim about “20 million” or sometimes “30 million” immigrants entering illegally during Biden’s term is also questionable. The Pew Research Center estimates approximately 14 million unauthorized immigrants resided in the U.S. as of 2023, an increase of about 4 million since 2019.

Housing experts note that immigrants, particularly those without legal status, are more likely to rent than buy homes. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated: “It is misplaced to blame immigration for the runup in house prices since the pandemic. Most new immigrants rent.”

Chris Herbert, managing director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, attributes the price surge primarily to “very low interest rates during the pandemic” combined with “the country’s constrained housing supply, which remained at insufficient levels after years of underproduction following the Great Recession.”

Vance did accurately acknowledge the housing supply problem, noting “we weren’t building enough new houses to begin with.” Ironically, immigrants represent a significant portion of the construction workforce, with Census data showing they account for 34% of construction trade jobs.

The vice president also claimed Trump administration policies were beginning to reduce housing price growth to 1-2%. While the Case-Shiller Index supports these figures, experts note the slowdown began well before Trump took office in January, with prices rising just 2.1% in the ten months prior.

As mortgage rates have recently declined to 6.19%, housing affordability remains a significant concern for many Americans, though the causes are more complex than political rhetoric often suggests.