Listen to the article
In a bold assertion challenged by market data, U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) claimed that Thanksgiving turkey prices have reached their lowest point in 25 years due to Republican policies. The congressman made this statement in a November 24 newsletter to constituents, linking to a report that contradicts his own assertion.
“This Thanksgiving, turkey prices are at their lowest point since 2000, thanks to Republican policies,” Hudson wrote, adding that he was “working to keep prices moving in the right direction after the inflationary spike over the last four years.”
However, the American Farm Bureau Federation report cited by Hudson tells a different story. The report does not indicate that turkey prices have hit a 25-year low. Instead, it shows that as a percentage of the total Thanksgiving meal cost, turkey’s share has decreased to 39% this year—the lowest proportion since 2000, when it was 38.7%.
Farm Bureau spokesperson Bailey Corwine clarified that actual turkey prices were lower in both 2019 and 2020, when the average cost for a 16-pound bird was $20.80 and $19.39 respectively. This year’s average price stands at $21.50.
The percentage decrease is partly attributable to price increases in other traditional Thanksgiving foods. Produce costs have risen due to higher farming expenses for fertilizer, fuel, machinery, and labor. Sweet potato prices jumped 37% from 2024 after Hurricane Helene damaged North Carolina’s fields, which produce more than half of the nation’s supply.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s November 21 report shows a mixed picture for turkey prices compared to last year. Frozen conventional whole turkeys weighing less than 16 pounds averaged 96 cents per pound, up one cent from 2023. Larger birds over 16 pounds averaged 99 cents per pound, an increase from 96 cents last year.
Historical data further contradicts Hudson’s claim. USDA reports show that in November 2008 and 2009, turkey prices fell below 90 cents per pound—significantly lower than current rates.
The turkey market presents a complex picture this year. While wholesale prices have increased due to bird flu outbreaks diminishing supply—with the USDA reporting wholesale frozen turkey at $1.77 per pound for 8-16 pound birds, up from 97 cents during the same period last year—many consumers are finding retail discounts.
This retail-wholesale price divergence occurs because grocers typically secure their turkey inventory months before Thanksgiving, potentially avoiding recent wholesale price jumps. Additionally, retailers often use turkeys as “loss leaders,” selling them at reduced prices to attract customers who will purchase other, more profitable items.
Datasembly, a market research company tracking prices at 150,000 U.S. stores, found a modest 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of November 17.
When questioned about his claim, Hudson’s office provided news articles about year-over-year turkey price declines but failed to supply evidence supporting the assertion that prices are at a 25-year low.
The discrepancy between Hudson’s claim and market data highlights the complexity of food pricing and the challenges in attributing price movements to specific political policies, particularly when the cited evidence contradicts the very claim it’s meant to support.
Fact Checker
Verify the accuracy of this article using The Disinformation Commission analysis and real-time sources.
9 Comments
It’s good to see an effort to provide factual context around political claims, even if they don’t align. Transparency is important for informed decision-making.
Agreed, we need more fact-checking and less partisan spin, especially on issues like food prices that affect everyone.
I’m curious to learn more about the broader factors impacting turkey and other food prices this year. The nuances here seem worth digging into further.
Fact-checking political statements is crucial, even when they align with one’s own views. It’s the only way to maintain accountability and trust in our institutions.
Well said. Objective analysis should come before partisan conclusions, regardless of which side is making the claim.
Interesting claim about turkey prices, though the report seems to contradict the congressman’s statement. I’m curious to see how actual turkey prices and trends compare over the longer term.
While the report seems to contradict the congressman’s claims, I appreciate the effort to provide more context and clarification around the turkey price data.
The nuance around turkey’s share of the overall Thanksgiving meal cost is an interesting data point. I wonder what other factors may be influencing that metric.
This is a good example of the importance of verifying claims, even when they may fit a preferred narrative. Transparency and accuracy should be the priority.