Risks in Strait of Hormuz Explained as US Prepares to Protect Shipping Lanes

WASHINGTON (TNND) — The White House says the U.S. is prepared to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions with Iran intensify.

The Strait of Hormuz represents one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil flows through the strait averaged approximately 20 million barrels per day in 2024, accounting for roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. When security concerns arise in this region, global markets respond swiftly and often dramatically.

In recent days, at least three tankers sustained damage in the Gulf amid escalating conflict, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to energy shipments, Reuters reported. On Tuesday, Brent crude prices settled at $81.40 per barrel, jumping 4.7% as traders factored in increased supply risks.

These oil price movements typically cascade into consumer fuel costs. GasBuddy analysts, including Patrick De Haan, have warned American drivers could experience gasoline price increases of 10–30 cents per gallon in the near term as market instability continues.

The implications of prolonged disruption through the Strait would extend far beyond the Middle East. Most oil transiting Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, with China and India being among the largest recipients. This creates a global vulnerability rather than a regional one.

Despite America’s substantial domestic oil and gas production, U.S. consumers remain exposed to these market fluctuations. The EIA estimates that only about 2% of total U.S. petroleum liquids consumption (approximately 7% of total U.S. crude oil imports) passes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, because energy is traded on a global market, disruptions anywhere affect prices everywhere.

Historically, the Strait has never been completely closed for an extended period in modern times. According to research from the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping through the waterway, but a complete, prolonged shutdown has never materialized. Even during major regional conflicts, traffic has continued, albeit under heightened risk conditions.

The most significant threat to shipping came during the “Tanker War” of the 1980s amid the Iran-Iraq conflict. While numerous vessels were attacked and damaged during this period, shipping operations never fully ceased.

The international response during that crisis established a template that may be relevant today. In March 1987, the U.S. agreed to transfer Kuwaiti tankers to American registry, and by July of that year, the U.S. Navy launched Operation Earnest Will, providing naval escorts to tankers traversing the Persian Gulf. This strategy prioritized keeping vital shipping lanes open despite elevated threats.

President Trump’s recent statement that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait if necessary echoes this historical approach. This commitment is significant because, as the EIA notes, even without a formal closure of the Strait, the mere threat of attacks can substantially increase shipping and insurance costs, tightening global supply and pushing energy prices higher.

The situation highlights the continued importance of the Strait of Hormuz to global energy security despite changes in production patterns and energy markets over recent decades. For American consumers, the developments serve as a reminder that despite the country’s progress toward energy independence, global events still influence domestic prices at the pump.

Energy analysts continue to monitor the situation closely, with particular attention to how shipping companies, insurance providers, and oil traders adjust their operations and pricing strategies in response to the evolving security environment in one of the world’s most consequential maritime passages.