DOGE’s Noncitizen Voting Claims Lack Substantiation, Experts Say

Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have recently made headlines with claims of uncovering evidence to support allegations that Democrats are orchestrating illegal voting by noncitizens on a scale large enough to influence national elections. However, voting experts have expressed significant skepticism about these assertions, particularly as DOGE has yet to release any supporting evidence.

Antonio Gracias, a private equity investor working with DOGE, stated that the team matched Social Security numbers issued to noncitizens with work visas against voter registration rolls in four undisclosed states, purportedly finding thousands of matches. Gracias further claimed that “many” of these individuals actually voted, suggesting this was part of a Democratic strategy to influence federal elections.

While DOGE says it has provided its findings to federal prosecutors for criminal investigation, no data has been shared publicly, making independent verification impossible.

Voting and data experts caution that database matching exercises involving millions of records can produce misleading results even with small error rates. Though cases of noncitizen voter registration do occur, states that have conducted detailed audits consistently find such instances to be relatively rare and insufficient to impact national election outcomes.

“The evidence is that the number of noncitizens illegally voting in federal elections is extremely low, not high enough to have changed the party outcome of any federal election in recent years,” said Walter Olson, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He noted that audits in states including Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina have found negligible numbers relative to total votes cast.

The claims center around the Enumeration Beyond Entry (EBE) system, a program initiated during the Trump administration in 2017 that provides Social Security numbers to noncitizens with work authorization. Gracias highlighted a dramatic increase in EBE numbers during the Biden administration, from 270,000 in 2021 to a projected 2.1 million in 2024.

Musk characterized this increase as evidence of a “massive large scale program to import as many illegals as possible, ultimately to change the entire voting map of the United States.”

Immigration policy experts note that the increase aligns with Biden’s expansion of protections for immigrants from several countries and a surge in asylum seekers during his presidency.

When states have investigated noncitizen voting, the numbers have been minimal. Iowa found 35 noncitizen votes counted in the 2024 election. Ohio identified 137 noncitizens on voter rolls, with six indicted for illegal voting between 2008 and 2020. Georgia’s review found just 20 noncitizens among 8.2 million registered voters, with nine having voted in previous elections.

“Multiple credible sources have documented that there is no evidence that unauthorized immigrants, green-card holders, or immigrants on temporary visas have registered and voted in U.S. federal elections in significant numbers,” said Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

A Brennan Center for Justice review found only approximately 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting among 23.5 million votes cast in the 2016 general election across 42 jurisdictions in 12 states. Similarly, the Bipartisan Policy Center identified just 77 instances of noncitizens voting between 1999 and 2023, based on a database compiled by the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Experts also emphasize that the personal risk to noncitizens for illegal voting far outweighs any potential benefit. Under the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, noncitizens who register to vote or vote in national elections face serious consequences: fines, imprisonment up to one year, deportation, and revocation of legal status.

“Ockham’s razor says that noncitizens aren’t intentionally registering or voting, because it’s just not worth it,” said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “The reason you don’t see actual evidence of noncitizen voting in any volume is that it doesn’t make any sense for any noncitizen to commit the crime.”

Despite the lack of evidence supporting widespread noncitizen voting, the allegations have gained political traction. They were cited by Republican Rep. Aaron Bean in support of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, which passed the House in April largely along party lines.

Critics of the DOGE claims note that political trends contradict the narrative of noncitizen influence on elections. As Olson pointed out, “As the share of foreign born persons resident in the U.S. has risen in recent years, the Republican share of the vote has risen, not fallen.”