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Experts Dismiss Recent Russian Coup Rumors as Unfounded
Speculation about an imminent coup in Russia tied to recent internet outages in Moscow has been dismissed by leading Russia experts as baseless, despite British tabloids circulating the claims.
The rumors, initially shared by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, suggested that figures close to Sergei Shoigu, former defense minister and current security council secretary, were planning to overthrow President Vladimir Putin’s government. The channel itself acknowledged the information was merely a “conspiracy theory” from an undisclosed source.
“This is pure BS. If Russian elites wanted Putin out, it would have happened in 2022,” Anton Barbashin, co-founder and editorial director at Riddle Russia, told the Kyiv Independent. Stephen Hall, assistant professor in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, echoed this assessment, stating that while Russian history is unpredictable, a coup is “unlikely as of today.”
The speculation centered on the arrest of Former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, a long-term Shoigu associate who now faces corruption charges. He is the fourth former deputy defense minister to be indicted since Shoigu was reassigned from his defense minister role in May 2024.
According to the theory, the Kremlin allegedly feared Shoigu’s allies would react to Tsalikov’s arrest, and the internet restrictions that affected key government and security facilities were part of preventative measures. Users in Moscow and St. Petersburg did indeed report significant mobile internet disruptions, which the Kremlin vaguely attributed to “security” needs without elaborating.
Analysts point out that Shoigu’s current position as secretary of the security council is largely ceremonial with limited resources or institutional power. “Putin allowed to dismantle Shoigu’s clan while giving him immunity, just like it happened before with Medvedev’s clan,” Barbashin explained, referring to former President Dmitry Medvedev’s diminished influence.
Hall further questioned whether any significant player remains in Shoigu’s orbit who could lead such an uprising. “The Shoigu clan has certainly been decimated since he was dismissed as defense minister,” he noted.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, rumors about Putin’s downfall have circulated regularly among Ukraine’s supporters. These have included claims about the Russian leader suffering from serious health conditions such as cancer or Parkinson’s disease, or even being replaced by a body double.
Roman Osadchuk, director of Threat Intelligence at LetsData tech company, advises caution when evaluating any rumors about Russian political developments. The popularity of such claims, he suggests, stems from curiosity about Russia’s opaque political system, with some content creators spreading these theories simply to generate engagement.
“Opacity does contribute to the speculative nature of commentary on regime change, but in this particular instance, there may be an element of ‘wishful thinking,'” explained Tomila Lankina, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. “Many of us working on Russian politics have been hoping for a change of regime for years, if not decades.”
Throughout the war, Russia’s elites have remained largely loyal to Putin, with no successful internal challenges to his authority. The only notable exception was Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group rebellion in June 2023, which was abandoned after just one day before reaching Moscow. Prigozhin subsequently died in a suspicious plane crash two months later.
This pattern suggests that while coup rumors may persist, the power structure in Russia remains stable under Putin’s control, with potential challengers either sidelined or eliminated. As internet restrictions become increasingly common in Russia amid the war, they appear to serve the regime’s security interests rather than indicating internal power struggles.
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10 Comments
This sounds like unfounded speculation. While internet outages can be concerning, experts seem to agree a coup in Russia is highly unlikely at this time. The details don’t seem convincing enough to draw that conclusion.
I agree, the experts quoted seem to dismiss this as baseless rumor-mongering. Unless there’s more concrete evidence, I wouldn’t put much stock in these coup claims.
This sounds like a classic case of unsubstantiated rumors gaining traction online. I’m glad to see the experts providing a more measured, fact-based perspective. Caution is warranted when evaluating politically-charged speculation like this.
Well said. Uncritically spreading unverified claims, especially around sensitive geopolitical issues, can be irresponsible. It’s commendable that the experts are pushing back and urging a more skeptical, evidence-based approach.
The details on the arrest of the former deputy defense minister are intriguing, but the experts seem to think it’s a stretch to link that to coup speculation. I’ll be curious to see if any more concrete evidence surfaces, but for now this looks like unfounded rumor.
I agree, the experts’ assessments seem reasonable. Unless new credible information emerges, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the coup rumors. Maintaining a skeptical, fact-based approach is prudent here.
Interesting that the initial source even acknowledged this was just a conspiracy theory. It’s good to see the experts pushing back and providing a more reasoned assessment. I’ll reserve judgment until more facts emerge.
Yes, it’s important to be skeptical of unsubstantiated claims, especially around sensitive political topics. The experts make a compelling case that a coup in Russia is highly unlikely at this time.
While internet outages can certainly raise concerns, it’s good to see the experts pushing back on the coup speculation as unfounded. Conspiracy theories often spread quickly, so it’s important to rely on authoritative, well-reasoned analysis.
Absolutely. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the experts don’t seem to think the evidence supports the coup theory in this case. Maintaining a healthy skepticism is wise until more concrete information comes to light.