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U.S. Manufacturing Construction Spending Declines Under Trump Despite Claims of Growth
Manufacturing construction spending in the United States has declined since President Donald Trump began his second term, contradicting his repeated claims of a 41% increase in factory construction, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
During recent appearances, including a White House press conference on January 20 and at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, Trump touted what he called a “record” 41% increase in factory construction. “Investment in American factories is up 41%. That’s a record. Nobody goes 41% up,” Trump stated, suggesting this achievement distinguished his administration from others.
However, Census Bureau data tells a different story. Under President Joe Biden, who served from January 2021 to January 2025, manufacturing construction spending experienced significant growth, increasing more than 200% over his four-year term. After declining 6.9% in 2020 during Trump’s first term, spending rose dramatically from $75.5 billion to $235.6 billion by the end of Biden’s presidency.
This growth was particularly pronounced after Biden signed the bipartisan CHIPS Act in August 2022, which included $39 billion to fund semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Manufacturing construction spending surged 62% in 2023 alone, following this legislative initiative.
Since Trump returned to office, the trend has reversed. Census Bureau quarterly data shows manufacturing construction spending declined 6.7% from the last quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. Monthly figures reveal a 7.3% drop from January through October 2025, the most recent period for which data is available.
When asked to explain the president’s 41% claim, the White House provided a methodology comparing averages of January through August 2025 versus the 2021-2024 average. This calculation yields a 40% higher figure but fails to acknowledge the significant growth during Biden’s term or the recent downward trend under Trump.
Anirban Basu, chief economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors, attributes the current level of manufacturing construction spending largely to projects initiated under the CHIPS Act. “While spending in the segment remains elevated from 2022 levels, that’s partially due to a precipitous increase in materials prices that occurred in 2022 and 2023 — these data are in nominal terms — and largely due to the surge in megaproject activity induced by the CHIPS Act,” Basu explained.
The American Institute of Architects’ consensus construction forecast published in January predicts this decline will continue, projecting a 4% drop in 2026 and another 1% decrease in 2027. Despite these short-term declines, the forecast notes that semiconductor fabrication plants will continue to fuel manufacturing construction spending in the long term.
Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs, are contributing factors in the current manufacturing landscape. Basu noted that while tariffs have increased demand for domestic production in some subsectors, they have also driven up costs for fabricated metal, increasing overall manufacturing construction costs.
The manufacturing job market has also struggled under Trump’s second term, with the economy losing 63,000 manufacturing jobs in his first 11 months, following a loss of 98,000 in the preceding 11 months, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Some analysts remain optimistic about future prospects. Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Snyder suggests tariffs could eventually serve as “a positive catalyst” for relocating manufacturing to the U.S. by changing “supply chain cost calculations.” However, a January Wall Street Journal article characterized Trump’s tariffs as ineffective “so far,” noting they have increased manufacturers’ costs for foreign parts and created uncertainty that has led to “a lost year for investment.”
While Trump has frequently cited investment pledges from various companies and countries, even he has acknowledged uncertainty about when these investments might materialize, telling the Wall Street Journal in December, “I can’t tell you. I don’t know when all of this money is going to kick in.”
The future trajectory of U.S. manufacturing construction remains uncertain, but Census Bureau data clearly shows that factory construction has declined under Trump’s second term, contradicting his claims of substantial growth.
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10 Comments
This article highlights the value of objective government statistics in assessing economic trends, rather than relying solely on political rhetoric. The data shows a clear shift in manufacturing construction spending under the two administrations.
Agreed, the data provides a much more nuanced and reliable picture than the president’s boasts. It’s a good reminder to always cross-reference claims with official figures.
It’s concerning to see the Trump administration’s claims about manufacturing construction do not align with the Census Bureau data. Fact-checking is crucial to hold leaders accountable and provide the public with accurate information.
Absolutely, transparency and integrity in government data and reporting is essential for informed decision-making. This discrepancy raises important questions about the administration’s use of statistics.
The 41% increase in factory construction that Trump cited seems questionable given the Census data showing a decline during his term and a big jump under Biden. Fact-checking is crucial for verifying claims, especially from political figures.
Absolutely, the data tells a very different story than Trump’s statement. It underscores the importance of relying on authoritative sources rather than unsubstantiated claims.
Interesting to see the data on manufacturing construction spending during the Trump and Biden administrations. It’s important to rely on official government statistics rather than claims, even from the president.
Agreed, the Census Bureau data provides a more objective view of the trends. It will be interesting to see how the new administration’s policies impact manufacturing investment going forward.
The swing in manufacturing construction spending from the Trump to Biden administrations is quite dramatic according to the Census figures. It will be interesting to see how this trend continues under the new leadership.
Yes, the data shows a significant reversal in fortunes for the manufacturing sector. It will be worth monitoring whether the Biden administration’s policies are able to sustain this growth.