Fact Check: Examining Crime Rates Among Undocumented Immigrants and U.S. Citizens

Immigration enforcement and crime have once again taken center stage in national politics, with heated rhetoric about whether undocumented immigrants commit crimes at higher rates than U.S. citizens. The question has become a flashpoint in policy debates and campaign messaging ahead of the November election.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that undocumented immigrants are fueling a crime wave across the country. During a recent campaign rally in Michigan, Trump stated that “illegal alien criminals” were “poisoning the blood of our country,” echoing similar statements he’s made throughout his campaign.

These assertions have been challenged by multiple academic studies and government data that show immigrants, including those without legal status, are generally less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens.

A comprehensive 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzed data from Texas, where officials track immigration status in criminal justice records. The research found that undocumented immigrants were 56% less likely to be arrested for violent crimes and 85% less likely to be arrested for drug crimes compared to U.S.-born citizens.

“The data simply doesn’t support the narrative that undocumented immigrants pose a unique public safety threat,” said Dr. Michael Light, a sociologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies immigration and crime patterns. “In fact, the evidence consistently shows the opposite.”

The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, conducted similar research using Texas Department of Public Safety data and found that in 2019, the criminal conviction rate for illegal immigrants was 782 per 100,000, compared to 1,422 per 100,000 for U.S. citizens – a significantly lower rate.

Federal incarceration statistics tell a similar story. While non-citizens make up roughly 7% of the U.S. population, they represent about 5% of the federal and state prison population, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Law enforcement officials have offered mixed perspectives on the issue. Some border community sheriffs have expressed concern about specific crimes tied to border crossings, while many police chiefs in major cities have noted that immigrant communities often have lower crime rates than other areas.

“We see no evidence that newcomers to our communities are driving crime rates up,” said Houston Police Chief Victor Rodriguez. “In many cases, these individuals are fleeing violence, not bringing it with them.”

Critics of these studies point out that any crime committed by someone who entered the country illegally is, by definition, preventable through stricter border enforcement. They also note that certain high-profile violent crimes committed by undocumented immigrants have devastated communities.

Immigration policy experts emphasize that understanding the relationship between immigration and crime requires nuanced analysis rather than broad generalizations.

“The discussion around immigration and crime often generates more heat than light,” said Alex Nowrasteh, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute. “But the empirical evidence consistently shows that immigrants, regardless of legal status, are less crime-prone than native-born Americans.”

The debate comes as both political parties have struggled to address longstanding problems in the U.S. immigration system. Border encounters reached record levels in December 2023, though they have decreased significantly in recent months following new enforcement measures.

Public opinion remains divided on immigration issues, with 55% of Americans disapproving of President Biden’s handling of immigration, according to recent polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Social scientists suggest several theories for why immigrants might commit fewer crimes, including the selection effect—that those willing to risk everything for a better life are typically more motivated and law-abiding—and the fact that immigrants often have strong family structures and community ties that deter criminal behavior.

As voters weigh competing claims about immigration and public safety in the upcoming election, fact-checkers emphasize the importance of distinguishing between individual anecdotes and broader statistical patterns when evaluating the relationship between immigration status and criminal behavior.