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In a notable shift for holiday meal planning, Thanksgiving dinner costs appear to be declining this year, though the picture isn’t as straightforward as recent political claims suggest.
President Donald Trump recently took to Truth Social to celebrate what he described as a 25% reduction in Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal costs compared to 2024, attributing the decrease to Republican economic policies. “AFFORDABILITY is a Republican Stronghold,” Trump declared, encouraging his party to highlight this “irrefutable fact.”
The White House quickly followed with a briefing emphasizing that the “classic holiday feast” is approximately 3% cheaper than last year, framing it as evidence that “America is winning the war on high prices” under Trump’s leadership.
Walmart did indeed announce its “most affordable holiday meal yet” in October, promoting a Thanksgiving meal package priced at just under $40 that purportedly feeds 10 people for less than $4 per person. John Furner, President and CEO of Walmart U.S., emphasized the company’s commitment to making holiday celebrations accessible without “compromising on quality, quantity or tradition.”
While the headline numbers appear to support Trump’s claim—this year’s $39.92 Walmart meal package is undeniably less expensive than 2024’s $55 offering—a closer examination reveals significant differences in what consumers actually receive for their money.
The 2025 meal includes 15 different products totaling 22 individual items, while the 2024 package contained 21 products and 29 items. The composition, brands, and quantities have changed substantially, making direct price comparisons potentially misleading. This year’s meal feeds 10 people at under $4 each, while last year’s fed eight people at under $7 per person.
Beyond Walmart’s promotional package, broader data from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) does show a genuine downward trend in Thanksgiving meal costs. The average cost for a traditional Thanksgiving feast serving 10 people has declined from $61.17 in 2023 to $58.08 in 2024, and now stands at $55.18 for 2025—representing a 5% year-over-year decrease.
Turkey prices have seen the most dramatic improvement, dropping 16% from last year. However, several other Thanksgiving staples have actually increased in price, including dinner rolls, cranberries, and pumpkin pie mix, which have risen by 9%, 5%, and 4% respectively.
Regional variations also affect holiday meal costs. The AFBF analysis found the South, including Texas, enjoys the lowest average prices for traditional Thanksgiving dinners at $50.01, while the West faces the highest at $61.75.
Despite these holiday-specific decreases, the broader picture of food inflation remains complex. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that average grocery prices increased by 1.4% from January to September this year and were up 2.7% compared to September 2024. In fact, year-over-year grocery prices haven’t decreased since May 2018.
Since 2019, various food categories have seen significant price increases in Texas, with the overall trend showing higher grocery costs despite recent moderation in some holiday-specific items.
The conflicting data illustrates the challenges in making broad economic claims based on limited metrics like promotional holiday meal packages. While Thanksgiving dinner may indeed be more affordable this year for many Americans, the complex reality of food prices and household budgets extends well beyond a single holiday meal deal.
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7 Comments
While the headline numbers are interesting, I agree that we need to look at the full context and not just cherry-pick the data to support a particular narrative.
Thanksgiving dinner affordability is certainly an important issue, but I’m wary of oversimplified political claims. I’d want to see a more balanced, data-driven analysis.
It’s good that Walmart is making an effort to keep holiday meals accessible, but I’d want to see a more detailed breakdown of the actual costs and how they’ve changed over time.
Politicizing the cost of Thanksgiving dinner seems like an oversimplification. There are likely many complex factors at play, and I’d want to see a more objective analysis.
I’m curious to see how Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal pricing compares to previous years, and how it stacks up against other retailers. Affordability is certainly important for many families.
It’s good to see Walmart trying to keep holiday meals affordable, but I’d want to see a more comprehensive comparison to past years and other retailers to put the numbers in context.
Interesting to see how Walmart is trying to keep Thanksgiving affordable this year. It’s important to look at the full context and not just cherry-pick the numbers.