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In a recent social media post, former President Donald Trump claimed California and Colorado rank among the “top outbound states” in 2025, suggesting residents are fleeing these states in droves. His assertion, however, contradicts official U.S. Census Bureau data and relies solely on limited information from a moving company’s marketing report.
Trump’s December 31 post on Truth Social stated: “California and Colorado are two of the TOP OUTBOUND STATES IN 2025 (United Van Lines!) – In other words, PEOPLE LEAVING!!! That’s what bad governors do to even places blessed with beautiful surrounds and climate.”
The claim stems from United Van Lines’ 2025 National Movers Study, which tracks the company’s interstate moving patterns. The study ranks states based on the ratio of outbound versus inbound shipments handled by this single moving company.
When examining the actual numbers, however, the data reveals a much different picture than the mass exodus Trump described. For California, United Van Lines reported 2,667 more household shipments leaving than entering the state. With California’s population of approximately 39.7 million, this represents a negligible 0.0269% potential population change—assuming each shipment represented a four-person household.
Similarly, Colorado reportedly had 661 more outbound than inbound shipments, which would amount to just 0.0444% of its 6 million residents potentially relocating elsewhere.
More importantly, these figures from a single moving company do not align with comprehensive federal population data. The U.S. Census Bureau, the gold standard for population statistics, tells a starkly different story about both states’ demographic trends.
According to the Census Bureau’s “State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2024” report, California has actually experienced population growth in recent years. While the state did lose residents during the early pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, this trend reversed in 2023 and 2024. Far from being a population loser, California gained 232,570 residents in 2023-2024, ranking third nationwide in population growth behind only Texas and Florida.
Colorado’s population data contradicts Trump’s claim even more directly. Census figures show the state has consistently gained residents each year from 2020 through 2024, maintaining steady growth even throughout the pandemic period.
Demographic experts caution against using moving company data to draw conclusions about population trends. Unlike the Census Bureau’s comprehensive methodology, which captures various forms of migration and natural population changes, moving company statistics represent only a small subset of relocations—typically those involving hired professional movers.
The discrepancy highlights the importance of relying on scientific data rather than marketing reports when discussing population trends. Interstate migration patterns are influenced by numerous factors, including housing costs, employment opportunities, climate preferences, and family considerations.
California and Colorado continue to attract new residents despite challenges like housing affordability in certain markets. Both states maintain strong economic sectors in technology, healthcare, and renewable energy, creating job opportunities that draw skilled workers.
The Census Bureau’s data provides a more complete and nuanced understanding of population shifts than selective statistics from a moving company. While some residents certainly leave California and Colorado each year, the overall population trends for both states remain positive according to official government figures.
This case illustrates how population statistics can be misrepresented when taken out of context or when based on limited data sources, especially when framed through a political lens rather than comprehensive demographic analysis.
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8 Comments
Interesting to see the discrepancy between Trump’s claims and the actual census data. It’s important to critically examine the sources behind such bold population exodus assertions.
Agreed. Relying solely on a moving company’s marketing report seems like a shaky basis for making broad claims about state population trends.
While United Van Lines’ data provides some insights, it’s important to recognize the limitations of relying on a single moving company’s figures to draw broader conclusions.
I’m curious to see how the overall domestic migration patterns play out across different states. The underlying drivers behind population shifts are likely complex.
Agreed, it would be interesting to analyze the broader trends and factors influencing where people choose to live and work nowadays.
The data shows a very small proportion of California’s population potentially leaving, far from the ‘mass exodus’ portrayed. Responsible reporting requires digging deeper beyond sensational headlines.
Absolutely. Context and nuance are key when analyzing population shifts – blanket statements can be misleading without proper statistical grounding.
It’s good that this article fact-checks the claims and provides the actual census data. Fact-checking is crucial to counter the spread of misinformation, especially around politically-charged topics.