Israel-Gaza Conflict Intensifies amid Rising Disinformation Campaigns

In the rapidly evolving landscape of Middle Eastern information warfare, state actors and their proxies are increasingly manipulating social media to advance regional objectives, according to International Crisis Group analyst Alessandro Accorsi.

For decades, information in the Middle East was tightly controlled through traditional media channels. The rise of social media, however, has provided governments with inexpensive tools to exert influence both domestically and internationally. While countries like Egypt focus primarily on controlling their internal information ecosystem, Gulf nations have leveraged digital platforms to extend their regional power.

“You had the Qatar rift back in 2017, which some dubbed ‘the first social media cold war,’ in the sense that no shots were fired, but it was only fought online and through the media,” Accorsi explains, pointing to one of the most prominent examples of this new battlefield.

State actors dominate this space, though notable exceptions exist. ISIS represents the most significant non-state entity to effectively weaponize social media for propaganda and recruitment. More recently, mysterious online presences like “the Moorish movement” emerged during Morocco-Algeria tensions, adopting American alt-right imagery and tactics to promote hyper-nationalist sentiments.

Accorsi distinguishes between misinformation—unintentionally shared false content—and disinformation, which is deliberately created to deceive. The latter often exploits existing misinformation trends to gain traction.

The strategic goals of these operations vary widely. Gulf countries have used online campaigns as testing grounds for policy shifts, with trolls often pushing narratives that diverge from official statements. For instance, when OPEC raised oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s official position downplayed tensions with the United States, while government-linked social media accounts aggressively promoted anti-American sentiment.

Even in non-democratic societies, information manipulation significantly impacts stability, particularly in conflict zones. In places like Sudan and Gaza, civilians depend on reliable information for life-and-death decisions about evacuation routes and aid distribution. Disinformation campaigns can deliberately confuse populations, putting them in harm’s way or undermining humanitarian responses.

“Information operations can aim to confuse people…getting them in harm’s way. Like slowing down, for example, the advancement of an armed force,” Accorsi notes. “We saw that a lot during the Tripoli offensive. We’ve seen that in Sudan.”

Russia’s involvement in Syria provides a revealing case study. While information operations alone couldn’t salvage Russia’s broader policy failures, they created enough cover for the Assad regime to employ chemical weapons, bomb civilians, and pursue normalization with regional powers despite continued domestic resistance.

“Over 14 years, the Syrian opposition created a strong civil society, strong independent media, but all in the diaspora, or in Idlib and the northeast. The population inside the regime-held areas were bombarded with propaganda,” Accorsi explains. The recent fracturing of this “information iron dome” has left Syrians vulnerable to sectarian messaging.

The Gaza conflict since October 2023 illustrates how acute disinformation differs from chronic campaigns. The disputed al-Ahli Hospital bombing became a flashpoint that polarized opinion throughout the Arab world. Israel’s strategic communications have evolved from earlier Gaza conflicts, creating parallel information ecosystems that force audiences to choose sides rather than engaging with a moderate center.

“In the first three months of the ongoing war, Israel did not try to contest the center. They did not go for moderate public international opinion, despite the horrors of October 7,” Accorsi observes. “Instead, they tried to create two different echo chambers, and everyone was forced to take side.”

Looking ahead, Accorsi identifies concerning trends. Information operations are increasingly conducted by small networks linked to PR companies, making attribution difficult. These operations have become more sophisticated with the integration of AI, which enables single operators to control thousands of believable fake personas.

Accorsi argues Western nations should recognize information spaces as security priorities. “Information is key, not only to win conflicts, but also to build stability, to govern transitions, to secure countries,” he emphasizes, noting that social media platforms are simultaneously reducing their content moderation efforts just as these threats intensify.

Comprehensive solutions will require not just better content moderation but also stronger data protection standards and resilient communications infrastructure. As Accorsi suggests, even post-conflict rebuilding efforts like those eventually needed in Gaza should prioritize independent telecommunications systems that can facilitate reliable information flow.