Challenging Disinformation: A Necessary Civic Responsibility

In a historic political shift, Wales has experienced what many are calling a political earthquake as Plaid Cymru secured 43 seats in the 2026 Senedd elections, ending Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh politics. Reform UK captured 34 seats, while Welsh Labour was reduced to just 9 seats, followed by the Welsh Conservatives with 7, the Wales Green Party with 2, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats with 1.

This dramatic realignment represents more than a typical democratic swing, according to Ukrainian refugee Yuliia Bond, who has lived in Caerphilly since 2022. Bond suggests the shift stems from deeper emotional and informational transformations that have been building across Welsh society, accelerated significantly by social media.

“Coming from Ukraine probably makes me much more sensitive to changes in public language, disinformation and emotional radicalisation than the average person here,” Bond writes, noting that people from her region “do not really assume democratic stability is permanent anymore.”

The shift in voter behavior is particularly evident in traditional Labour strongholds. In Caerphilly, Reform UK’s support jumped from 20.3% in the 2024 general election to 36% in the 2025 Senedd by-election – a 15.7 percentage point increase in just over a year. Final constituency models for areas like Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni projected Reform around 31-35% of the vote.

Bond draws parallels between what’s happening in Wales and the information warfare that Ukraine has faced. “Modern conflicts are fought not only on physical battlefields, but also inside digital information spaces,” she explains. “Russia weaponised disinformation for years before tanks crossed borders. Emotional narratives spread faster than factual corrections. Algorithms rewarded outrage.”

A critical factor in the political transformation has been the way immigration has become what Bond describes as “the emotional explanation for everything” – from housing shortages and struggling public services to crime and economic insecurity. This narrative has been amplified through social media, where algorithms prioritize emotional engagement over factual accuracy.

“A person can now live in an area with relatively little migration, yet consume hours of emotionally charged immigration content every single week online,” Bond observes. “Political perception is increasingly shaped less by lived reality and more by algorithmic reality.”

The consequences of this shift extend beyond electoral politics. Bond warns that hate crimes, community tensions, and political extremism may increase if current trends continue. “Democracy does not only collapse through dictatorships or coups. Sometimes it deteriorates through emotional exhaustion. Through permanent outrage. Through algorithmic radicalisation,” she cautions.

However, Bond emphasizes that the situation is not hopeless. Drawing from Ukraine’s experience, she proposes several strategies for building democratic resilience: creating online anti-disinformation working groups, supporting organizations fighting racism and disinformation, strengthening Welsh journalism, bringing media literacy into community life, building cross-community solidarity, and challenging disinformation early.

“Democracy survives when ordinary people actively participate in protecting truth and social trust,” Bond states. She notes that while democratic systems require accepting election results, they also need “a public capable of distinguishing evidence from manipulation, and genuine debate from algorithmically amplified outrage.”

For Bond, the issue extends beyond party politics to the information environment in which voters make decisions. She concludes with a warning that societies don’t suddenly become divided overnight, but rather “by one emotionally manipulative headline, one algorithm, one rumour and one dehumanising narrative at a time, until eventually people stop seeing each other as neighbours at all.”