Balkan Opinion Poll Reveals Complex Regional Tensions and Western Influence Concerns

A comprehensive new survey spanning 11 Balkan and Eastern European countries has revealed a complex web of political attitudes, security concerns, and competing international influences across this strategically important region.

The poll, conducted earlier this month, surveyed more than 10,000 people across Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, and Turkey, offering a detailed look at domestic priorities and geopolitical preferences.

Economic concerns dominated the list of issues facing these nations, with inflation and cost of living leading overall, closely followed by corruption – which ranked as the top concern in Bosnia and Serbia. Distinct regional variations emerged, with internal conflict and division ranking highly in Bosnia and Serbia, while Montenegro listed organized crime and drug trafficking among its top three concerns.

Attitudes toward the future varied widely. Most respondents expressed pessimism about their countries’ prospects, particularly in Greece and Bulgaria. Only Albania, Montenegro, and Kosovo showed strong optimism, with North Macedonia also leaning positive. This outlook correlates with political sentiment, as citizens in most countries desire either moderate or fundamental political change rather than stability.

Trust in democratic processes showed alarming variation. Only Albania, Montenegro, and Kosovo had majorities expressing confidence that their elections were conducted fairly. In stark contrast, nearly half of Bulgarian and Serbian respondents reported no confidence at all in their electoral systems.

The survey revealed widespread concern about foreign interference and misinformation. Clear majorities in all countries believed foreign powers were attempting to influence their domestic politics, with Bosnia and Bulgaria particularly concerned, where seven in ten respondents reported such suspicions.

Notably, most countries identified the United States – not Russia – as the entity most likely attempting to influence their politics. The European Union ranked third overall but second in several countries including Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia. Israel was seen as the second most influential foreign actor in Greece and Turkey.

“Evidence of Russian interference in domestic political discourse is pretty clear,” the report states, detailing sophisticated bot networks operating in Bosnia. Analysis of Twitter/X activity showed Russian-linked bots infiltrating Bosnian online discourse, pushing messages designed to sow ethnic division, discredit the Bosnian state, and undermine support for the EU, NATO, and the West.

The survey also measured attitudes toward potential allies and adversaries. Views toward the United States were divided, with Albania and Kosovo showing strong favorability, while Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey expressed mostly negative opinions. The EU enjoyed broader favorability except in Serbia, while opinions on Russia were negative overall but positive in four countries.

When asked whether NATO would defend them if attacked, responses varied dramatically. Albanians expressed the highest confidence, followed by Kosovars. However, in Greece, Montenegro, and Turkey – all NATO members – majorities doubted NATO would come to their defense.

On broader geopolitical alignment, most countries leaned toward the West, but Bulgaria, Serbia, and Turkey showed greater alignment with Russia and the East. The survey identified four distinct attitude groups across the region: “Authoritarian Pessimists” (pro-Russia, anti-West), “Strategic Europeanists” (pro-EU but critical of U.S.), “Committed Westerners” (pro-West, anti-Russia), and “Independent Neutrals” (favoring neutrality over alignment).

These findings highlight the region’s complex geopolitical landscape, where competing international influences intersect with domestic concerns about economic stability, corruption, and democratic governance. The persistent divisions suggest the Balkans remains contested territory in the broader competition between Western and Eastern powers.