Trump immigration policies and a lower fertility rate slow US growth projection, budget office says

U.S. Population Growth Slowing Under Trump’s Immigration Policies, CBO Warns

The U.S. population is projected to grow by just 15 million people over the next three decades, a significantly smaller increase than previously anticipated, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office released Wednesday.

The nonpartisan agency attributes this demographic slowdown primarily to President Donald Trump’s restrictive immigration policies and declining fertility rates. Current projections show the U.S. population expanding from 349 million people this year to 364 million by 2056—a 2.2% smaller gain than the CBO had forecast last year.

Perhaps most striking is the CBO’s prediction that U.S. population growth will completely stall by 2056, with the population remaining essentially unchanged from the previous year. Without immigration, the demographic picture would be even more concerning, with the nation’s population beginning to shrink as early as 2030 when deaths would start to exceed births.

“Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years, it’s still a demographic shock,” said William Frey, a demographer at the centrist Brookings Institution.

The CBO’s revised projections follow a September report that estimated Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other strict immigration measures would result in approximately 320,000 people being removed from the United States over the next decade.

Since returning to office in January 2025, the Trump administration has implemented various strategies to reduce immigration, including visa bans for applicants from certain countries and deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in U.S. cities to apprehend undocumented immigrants. Congress supported these efforts in July by allocating roughly $150 billion toward Trump’s deportation agenda, funding border wall extensions, detention centers, and thousands of additional law enforcement personnel.

The demographic implications extend beyond simple population numbers. Social Security and Medicare systems, already strained by an aging population, will face increasing pressure with fewer workers paying into the system. By 2030, all baby boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—will be over 65, creating a substantial demographic imbalance.

Immigration has been the primary driver of U.S. population growth in recent years, compensating for fertility rates that have fallen well below replacement levels. For a population to maintain itself without immigration, the fertility rate needs to be approximately 2.1 births per woman. The CBO projects U.S. fertility rates to drop from 1.58 births per woman in 2026 to 1.53 by 2036, where it is expected to remain for the next two decades.

Tracking immigration trends since Trump’s return to office has proven challenging for economists and demographers. The Current Population Survey estimated that the adult immigrant population fell by 1.8 million people from January to November 2025, but some experts question whether this reflects an actual population decline or simply reduced survey participation among immigrant communities.

According to the CBO’s latest analysis, the U.S. added approximately 410,000 immigrants in 2025—a significant drop from previous years. Immigration is expected to gradually increase through 2030 before slowing again through 2036 due to reduced numbers of international students and temporary workers. The agency then projects immigration to rebound to an average of 1.2 million people annually between 2037 and 2056.

Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire, emphasized the dual contribution of immigrants to the U.S. economy and population growth. “These immigrants bring both themselves and the potential for children in the near term,” Johnson noted. “They contribute both to the labor force through their arrival but also to the potential future growth of the U.S. population through their potential to have children.”

The CBO’s projections highlight the complex interplay between immigration policy, fertility trends, and long-term population dynamics—factors that will shape America’s demographic and economic future for generations to come.