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Mexico Emerges as Crucial Oil Supplier to Cuba Amid Venezuelan Crisis
As the United States prepares to seize control of Venezuelan oil assets and the Trump administration hardens its stance toward Cuba, Mexico has stepped into a pivotal role as a key fuel supplier to Havana. This development threatens to further complicate already strained relations between Mexico and the United States.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on Wednesday that “with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has become an important supplier” of crude oil to Cuba. However, she insisted that “no more oil is being sent than has been sent historically; there is no specific shipment.” According to Sheinbaum, these shipments are made through formal contracts or as humanitarian aid, though she provided no specific figures on export volumes.
The situation highlights Cuba’s ongoing energy vulnerability. Following the 1959 revolution that toppled dictator Fulgencio Batista, the United States imposed a comprehensive trade embargo on Cuba in response to the nationalization of American-owned property. Under this embargo—long condemned by many nations including Mexico—Cubans have endured persistent economic and energy crises, driving hundreds of thousands to migrate, particularly to the United States.
Daily life in Cuba already reflects these energy challenges. Blackouts lasting up to eight hours and long lines at gas stations are commonplace across the island. José Martínez, a 65-year-old former construction worker from Old Havana, expressed concern that the Venezuelan crisis will only worsen conditions. “The blackouts are going to intensify with all this,” he said, adding his belief that the U.S. intervention in Venezuela is motivated by oil interests.
Street vendor Yeison Gálvez, 37, voiced anxiety about transportation: “For as long as I can remember, we’ve depended on Venezuela for fuel. We’re going to be walking even more.”
Recent data shows the scope of Mexico’s oil relationship with Cuba. From January to September 2025, Mexico shipped approximately 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba—17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products—according to the most recent report submitted by state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Jorge Piñón, an expert from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin who tracks oil shipments using satellite technology, shared similar figures with The Associated Press. He noted that Mexico’s exports to Cuba dropped to around 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in September 2025.
By comparison, in the three months prior to the crisis, Venezuela’s Maduro government exported an average of 35,000 barrels daily to Cuba, approximately one-quarter of the island’s total demand, according to Piñón’s data.
Despite the strategic importance of these shipments to Cuba, experts believe it’s unlikely Mexico will significantly increase oil exports to the island. “The U.S. government would go bonkers,” Piñón remarked. Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness added, “There will be more pressure from the United States regarding Cuba,” with oil likely being a focal point.
Mexico has historically provided oil assistance to Cuba during energy crises. After widespread protests in Cuba in 2021, Mexico sent one of its largest humanitarian aid packages, which included 100,000 barrels of fuel. In October 2024, following severe blackouts in Cuba, Mexico shipped more than 400,000 barrels in just a few days.
Ocampo criticized the lack of transparency in these arrangements, noting that since 2023, shipments have been made via Gasolinas Bienestar, a private Pemex subsidiary whose financial operations remain opaque. While Pemex’s SEC report states that shipments to Cuba were valued at approximately $400 million and represented market-price sales through contracts, Ocampo questions whether they were actually discounted shipments, possibly in exchange for Cuban services like medical personnel, or classified as humanitarian aid.
The economic rationale behind these exports appears increasingly questionable as Pemex faces its own challenges. According to Ocampo, 2025 is on track to become the year with the lowest crude oil exports from Mexico, “with less than 600,000 barrels per day, when just a couple of years ago we exported more than 1 million.”
As regional tensions continue to evolve, Mexico’s role in supporting Cuba’s energy needs remains a delicate balancing act between humanitarian concerns, historical alliances, and the risk of further antagonizing the United States.
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6 Comments
Cuba’s ongoing energy vulnerability is concerning. Relying on a single supplier like Venezuela has clearly been risky, so Mexico’s involvement is an important shift. But will it be enough to meet Cuba’s needs?
The US embargo on Cuba has had long-lasting impacts, and this latest development shows how complex the energy dynamics are in the region. Mexico’s stance will be crucial as the situation evolves.
It’s understandable that Mexico would want to support Cuba given their historical ties, but this puts them at odds with the US position. Navigating these geopolitical waters will require a deft diplomatic touch.
This is a complex geopolitical situation with significant energy and economic implications. Mexico’s role as a fuel supplier to Cuba bears close monitoring, as it could have ripple effects throughout the region.
This is an interesting development in the Cuba-Venezuela-US energy saga. It will be important to see how the US responds to Mexico becoming a key fuel supplier to Cuba, especially if shipment volumes increase.
Mexico seems to be walking a careful line, acknowledging its role as a supplier while claiming no increase in shipments. The impact on US-Mexico relations bears watching.