Jet Fuel Crisis Looms as Middle East Conflict Threatens Summer Travel Plans

Europe faces a critical jet fuel shortage that could severely disrupt global air travel within weeks, according to International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol. In an exclusive Associated Press interview Thursday, Birol warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of remaining jet fuel supplies, describing the situation as the “largest energy crisis” for the global economy.

The shortage stems from the ongoing conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that normally accounts for approximately 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports. According to Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, “Every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Europe is edging closer to supply shortages… no jet fuel has passed the strait since the war broke out.”

Industry data shows jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the conflict began, putting immense pressure on airlines for whom fuel represents about 30% of overall operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The IEA report released this week indicates several European countries now have less than 20 days of fuel coverage in their supplies—a critical threshold as supplies haven’t dropped below 29 days since 2020. Experts warn that if coverage falls below 23 days, physical shortages could emerge at airports, triggering flight cancellations.

Regional Impact Varies

Asia-Pacific countries are most dependent on Middle Eastern oil and jet fuel, followed by Europe. While about 75-80% of Europe’s jet fuel comes from European refiners, the remaining 20-25% that would typically come through the Strait of Hormuz is now unavailable.

The United States has stepped in to help fill some gaps, increasing jet fuel exports to Europe to approximately 150,000 barrels per day in April—about six times the normal level, according to Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners. The U.S., as a major oil producer, faces less risk of actual shortages but will likely see continued price increases.

“I tell my kids…we’re not so much going to run out of supply,” Rousseau said. “It’s just going to cost more here, whereas in different parts of the world you could actually get to a point where there’s just no fuel.”

Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates, estimates the world is losing 10-15 million barrels of oil daily due to the Hormuz closure. While the IEA has released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, this won’t provide immediate relief. “It could take until the end of the year to get all of those barrels onto the market,” Molchanov noted.

Airlines Begin Taking Action

Airlines have started responding to the crisis in various ways. Dutch carrier KLM announced Thursday it would cut 160 flights next month—approximately 1% of its European routes—citing “rising kerosene costs” that make certain flights “no longer financially viable.”

Germany’s Lufthansa is accelerating the shutdown of its feeder airline CityLine and removing 27 older, less fuel-efficient planes from service immediately rather than next year as previously planned.

EasyJet, a major European budget carrier, reported Thursday it expects to see a pretax loss of £540-560 million ($731-758 million) for the first half of fiscal 2026, though CEO Kenton Jarvis noted that overall demand remains strong.

U.S.-based Delta Air Lines, which flies extensively to European destinations, stated it is “aware of the potential jet fuel supply issue” but doesn’t expect any “near-term impact to our operations.” Delta uniquely positioned itself by purchasing a refinery in Philadelphia in 2012 specifically to help manage fuel costs.

Consumer Impact Extends Beyond Price

Christopher Anderson, a professor at Cornell University, warns travelers that the crisis will affect more than just ticket prices: “This is no longer just a fuel-price story. For airlines, it is now a network-planning story.” He predicts “a market with later booking patterns, more schedule volatility and fewer low-fare options if this disruption lasts into the core summer season.”

Many carriers have already begun passing costs to consumers. Major U.S. airlines including Delta, United, American, Southwest, and JetBlue have all recently increased checked baggage fees. International carriers are also adjusting: Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific recently increased fuel surcharges by roughly 34% across all routes, while Air India added up to $280 in fees on some flights. Emirates, Lufthansa, and KLM have similarly adjusted fares to manage the volatility.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby highlighted the severity of the situation in a recent staff memo, noting that sustained elevated fuel prices could add $11 billion in annual costs—more than double the airline’s best-ever annual profit of under $5 billion.

As the summer travel season approaches, consumers should prepare for higher costs, fewer flight options, and potentially significant disruption if the crisis continues unresolved.