US-Israeli strikes didn’t topple Iran’s leadership. Now it must navigate talks to end the war

Iran’s Leadership Faces Crucial Test in Peace Negotiations Following War

After devastating U.S.-Israeli strikes eliminated Iran’s supreme leader and much of its top leadership, the Islamic Republic has managed to maintain stability through a newly empowered governing council. However, ongoing peace negotiations with the United States are now testing the resilience of this restructured power system.

For decades, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei successfully managed Iran’s competing power factions, balancing rival opinions while maintaining ultimate authority. Following his death in the recent conflict, that clear leadership structure has been replaced by what appears to be committee rule, raising questions about who truly holds decision-making power among the civilian officials and Revolutionary Guard generals now steering the country.

The Supreme National Security Council has emerged as Iran’s central governing body, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf serving as its public face and chief negotiator with the United States. This council includes figures spanning Iran’s political spectrum—from reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian to hard-line Revolutionary Guard commanders like Ahmad Vahidi and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

“Factionalism is just built into the DNA of this system,” explains Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group. This inherent structure of multiple overlapping power centers has allowed the Islamic Republic to withstand the assassination campaign that targeted its leadership.

The current ceasefire negotiations present perhaps the greatest challenge to this restructured leadership. The U.S. is demanding significant concessions regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran has consistently maintained is peaceful while asserting its right to uranium enrichment. The talks, with Pakistani mediation, are attempting to move forward this week amid tensions that could expose internal rifts within Iran’s leadership.

Iran’s negotiating strategy hinges on its control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil shipments. By threatening this chokepoint, Iranian officials believe they can drive up fuel prices worldwide, creating economic pressure that gives them leverage against the United States. Senior Iranian officials have projected confidence, suggesting they can withstand economic pain longer than their adversaries.

However, signs of internal disagreement have already emerged. Last weekend, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media that Iran was reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic as part of the ceasefire agreement. Hours later, when the U.S. declared it would continue its naval blockade to maintain pressure on Iran, the Iranian military countermanded the foreign minister’s statement and announced the strait would remain closed.

This public contradiction triggered criticism in Iranian media, with outlets close to the Revolutionary Guard suggesting Araghchi had projected weakness. The Foreign Ministry was forced to defend itself, stating it “does not take any action without coordinating with higher-level institutions.”

Qalibaf, the 64-year-old parliament speaker who has emerged as Iran’s chief negotiator, appears uniquely positioned to bridge these divides. With a background as both a Revolutionary Guard general and a pragmatic former mayor of Tehran, he maintains relationships across Iran’s political spectrum. During his tenure as Tehran’s mayor from 2005 to 2017, he gained a reputation for practical problem-solving despite facing allegations of corruption and human rights abuses.

“He has the conservatives on his side. But he also now has very robust backing from the reformists and the centrists,” notes Arash Azizi, an Iranian journalist who has written extensively about Qalibaf and the Revolutionary Guard.

Qalibaf’s close ties to the Khamenei family—both hailing from the eastern shrine city of Mashhad—may also strengthen his position. Though Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father as supreme leader, he remains in hiding after reportedly being wounded in the initial strikes and has not appeared in public since taking the position.

The outcome of these negotiations carries immense stakes for Iran’s leadership. The war and U.S. blockade have further devastated an already struggling economy, potentially fueling domestic unrest that has periodically challenged the regime. Economic hardship has previously sparked protests that openly called for the Islamic Republic’s overthrow.

As Pakistan attempts to host a new round of negotiations this week, Iran’s restructured leadership faces a critical balancing act: securing enough concessions to relieve economic pressure while not appearing to compromise on core principles that could expose divisions within the ruling system.