U.S. Economic Pressure on Iran Reaches Critical Point, Expert Says

U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached its most powerful point in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions from achieving their full potential, according to former Treasury Department sanctions expert Miad Maleki.

In a recent interview, Maleki, who played a central role in Treasury sanctions campaigns against Iran and its proxy network, described the current moment as representing an unprecedented convergence of economic, political and diplomatic leverage against Tehran.

“We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict… since 1979,” Maleki said.

The assessment comes as President Donald Trump signaled escalating pressure last week, claiming the United States has “total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and that the waterway is effectively “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to a deal.

Maleki argues this moment marks a significant turning point because multiple pressure tools—sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and tighter enforcement—are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous approaches, the current strategy directly targets Iran’s oil exports and the networks that facilitate them.

Immediate Economic Impact

The pressure campaign is already having tangible effects. According to Maleki, Iran may run out of oil storage capacity in as little as two to three weeks, potentially forcing production cuts. Simultaneously, gasoline shortages could emerge on a similar timeline due to Iran’s heavy reliance on imports despite being a major oil producer.

Iran imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline daily to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters. “If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically,” Maleki warned, noting that previous shortages and price increases have triggered widespread protests.

These disruptions, combined with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses from the blockade and strait restrictions, could quickly cascade through Iran’s financial system, potentially leaving the regime unable to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed civil unrest.

Economic Vulnerability

The Iranian economy is already “on the verge of collapse,” according to Maleki, suffering from triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency, and approximately 90% collapse in purchasing power. The current pressure campaign could result in long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.

Ironically, the Strait of Hormuz—long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets—has become a point of vulnerability for Tehran.

“Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy,” Maleki explained, calling its closure a form of “economic self-sabotage.”

While Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, India and China are most exposed to disruptions in the waterway, many have built up significant reserves to cushion potential shocks. Approximately 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for these nations flow through the strait, but Iran’s immediate vulnerabilities are far more acute.

Enhanced Enforcement

Supporting the economic pressure is a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary revenue source. The Treasury Department has intensified enforcement under what it describes as an “Economic Fury” campaign, using financial and maritime tools simultaneously to restrict Iran’s revenue streams.

A senior administration official indicated the strategy focuses on “systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds,” including constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade.

Financial pressure is also expanding globally, with Treasury warning banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions—signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.

The Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.

Effectiveness and Limitations

Analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran indicates the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments. At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers.

“Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea,” the group stated, “but by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments.”

Despite their impact, Maleki believes sanctions have been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations. Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed “maximum pressure,” but enforcement ramped up gradually. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.

“What’s different now,” Maleki emphasized, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil.

For maximum effectiveness, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign entities facilitating Iranian trade. Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.

“At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel,” he warned, suggesting these conditions could potentially trigger renewed domestic unrest.