UN forecasts global economic growth of 2.7% this year, down slightly from 2025

The United Nations has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.7%, slightly below last year’s projection, citing concerns over increased U.S. tariffs, economic uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

U.N. economists predict a modest improvement to 2.9% growth by 2027, though this remains significantly lower than the 3.2% average growth recorded between 2010 and 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies worldwide. The forecast for 2025 stands at 2.8%.

“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement released Thursday, “generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities.”

Despite these challenges, the report noted “unexpected resilience” to the sharp increases in U.S. tariffs implemented last year. Solid consumer spending and easing inflation helped sustain economic momentum, though underlying weaknesses in the global economy persist.

According to the U.N.’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report, growth across developed economies including Europe, Japan, and the United States is projected to remain relatively stable, though with some variations.

In the United States, growth is expected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to an estimated 1.9% in 2025, as the report observes that “strong consumer spending and AI-related investment were partly offset by weak residential and commercial construction.” The U.N. forecasts a modest recovery with 2% growth in 2026, rising slightly to 2.2% in 2027.

Japan’s economy faces particular challenges, with growth projected at just 0.9% for 2026 and 1% in 2027, below the 1.2% estimated for 2025. “Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, while exports — particularly of automobiles — will likely remain constrained by higher United States tariffs and policy uncertainty,” the economists noted.

The European Union is expected to see its economic growth decline from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026 “as higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports,” before rebounding to 1.6% in 2027.

The outlook appears more positive for several large developing economies. China, India, and Indonesia are expected to maintain solid growth trajectories, providing some counterbalance to the global slowdown.

East Asia’s economic growth is projected at 4.4% this year, down from 4.9% last year. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, below the estimated 4.9% expansion in 2025. The report notes that “a temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States — including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce — has helped stabilize confidence” in the Chinese economy.

For the world’s least developed countries, the U.N. projects growth to increase from an estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and reach 5% by 2027. Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Tanzania were highlighted for their particularly strong economic performances.

Africa is expected to see modest economic growth, rising from an estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. However, the report cautions that “high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks” to the continent’s economic outlook.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, while “the outlook remains broadly resilient,” growth is projected to decline slightly from an estimated 2.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, before increasing to 2.5% in 2027.

The report underscores how the complex interplay of trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and technological changes is creating a challenging economic landscape. While some regions and economies demonstrate resilience, the global picture reflects ongoing struggles to return to pre-pandemic growth levels amid new and evolving economic pressures.