Gaza Set for First Local Elections in 22 Years Amid Concerns Over Hamas Influence

Residents of Deir al-Balah in Gaza will head to polling stations Saturday for the first local elections in 22 years, sparking concerns among regional experts that the vote could provide Hamas with an opportunity to maintain influence despite ceasefire requirements for disarmament.

“When you hold elections in the Palestinian Authority and the timing’s not right and the circumstances are still dicey, you get Hamas victories,” Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital. He pointed to the 2006 elections advocated by the Bush administration that “led to Hamas winning, and it led to a standoff which led to a civil war.”

The upcoming ballot has raised red flags as Gaza remains divided, with Israel controlling approximately 53% of the territory while Hamas maintains control over the remaining 47%. The militant group has reportedly strengthened its position in recent months by continuing to tax local residents, developing education systems, and deploying police throughout areas under its control.

Four political parties are competing in the Deir al-Balah election. To qualify, candidates were required to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and its previous agreements, including recognition of Israel and endorsement of a two-state solution. However, analysts have expressed concern that one party, “Deir al-Balah Unites Us,” appears to have Hamas affiliations, with two candidates allegedly photographed alongside Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, described the election timing as “extremely reckless and irresponsible” in a social media post. “Gazans are being arrested, jailed, tortured, shot, and killed daily for social media posts and anything they say that’s perceived as being critical of Hamas,” he wrote, arguing that the elections could interfere with planned transition processes that require Hamas to first disarm and relinquish power.

The disarmament of Hamas remains a central component of President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement. The New York Times reported that Hamas officials have offered to surrender “thousands of weapons” from their police force and security institutions, but were unclear whether this would include weapons from their military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades.

Schanzer dismissed claims that Hamas maintains separate political and military operations. “That is a fiction. The idea that they are separate in any way or that there is a firewall between them is asinine,” he said. “It’s a distinction that has been made up by the West in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections.”

The expert suggested that any disarmament offer from Hamas would likely involve strategic distinctions between weapon types. They might offer to surrender heavy weapons like RPGs while maintaining a substantial arsenal of automatic weapons, allowing them to preserve military capabilities.

Another complicating factor in Gaza is the challenge of distinguishing between civilians and terrorist affiliates. Reports continue to emerge of Gazan journalists and media personnel being posthumously identified as members of terrorist groups, highlighting the complex nature of establishing transparent governance in the territory.

Schanzer proposed that weakening Iran, Hamas’ primary international supporter, could be instrumental in diminishing the militant group’s influence. “The psychological impact of their top patron being defeated on the battlefield, I can’t overstate how important that event could be,” he explained. “It would be a gut punch to Hamas.”

Despite these concerns, election campaigning has been underway in Deir al-Balah since early April, with citizens closely following developments. Campaign posters are visible throughout the city as residents prepare for this significant political event.

The Trump administration has not publicly responded to questions about whether partial disarmament would satisfy its ceasefire terms, nor whether it plans to intervene to delay the elections until Gaza achieves greater stability.

As Israel continues military operations aimed at degrading Hamas capabilities, Schanzer noted that patience remains essential. “We could continue to see the erosion of Hamas control” through the “slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground,” he said, while cautioning that “the enemies of the United States and Israel and the West have a very different timeline. They want to wait out everybody because they know that we’d like to move on.”