Guinea-Bissau’s latest coup sparks allegations of a staged takeover. Here’s what to know

Soldiers in Guinea-Bissau seized power last week in what critics describe as a staged coup designed to maintain the political status quo following a disputed presidential election. The military takeover has further destabilized one of West Africa’s poorest and most politically fragile nations.

The military intervention came just three days after a contested November 23 presidential election in which both incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias claimed victory. On November 26, military officers appeared on state television announcing they had taken control of the government and suspended the electoral process, citing an alleged conspiracy to manipulate election results.

The soldiers claimed their intervention was necessary to stop “some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord, and domestic and foreign nationals” from interfering with the democratic process. Guinea-Bissau has long been identified as a significant transit hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a criminal enterprise that security experts say has fueled decades of political instability.

In the immediate aftermath of the takeover, General Horta Inta-a was installed as head of a one-year transitional government. Meanwhile, President Embaló, who told media he had been deposed and arrested, was permitted to leave the country. He first flew to neighboring Senegal on a government-chartered flight before continuing to the Republic of Congo, where he currently remains.

However, the circumstances surrounding Embaló’s removal have fueled widespread speculation that the coup may have been orchestrated by the president himself. Opposition candidate Fernando Dias alleged the military takeover was manufactured to disrupt the election results, which many believe were trending against the incumbent president.

Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in Guinea-Bissau leading an electoral observation mission, lent credibility to these allegations, publicly accusing Embaló of staging what he called a “ceremonial coup” to maintain his grip on power.

“A military doesn’t take over governments and allow the sitting president that they overthrew to address press conferences and announce that he has been arrested,” Jonathan told reporters. Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko echoed these sentiments, describing the events as a “scheme” rather than a genuine military takeover.

Analysts note that this coup differs significantly from others that have swept across West Africa since 2020. Military leaders in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso justified their seizures of power as necessary to combat extremist insurgencies or address governance failures. In neighboring Guinea, General Mamadi Doumbouya overthrew the president in 2021 with promises to fight corruption.

“It was carried out by people who are Embaló’s close allies in the military,” said Beverly Ochieng, an analyst at Control Risks, noting that General Dinis N’Tchama, one of the coup’s leaders, was a personal military advisor to the president. “The sentiment coming out from the opposition and civil societies is that it was staged because Embaló was losing his grip on power.”

Even before the election, Embaló faced a legitimacy crisis, with the political opposition arguing that his term had already expired earlier this year. His relatively gentle treatment during the coup—including freedom to speak with the press and permission to leave the country—stands in stark contrast to other ousted West African leaders, such as Niger’s Mohamed Bazoum, who has remained in military custody for two years.

This latest coup adds another chapter to Guinea-Bissau’s troubled political history, which has seen four successful coups and numerous attempted takeovers since gaining independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago. The country’s first military coup came in 1980 when Prime Minister Joao Bernardo Vieira ousted President Luis Cabral. Vieira himself would later be deposed in 1999 following accusations of arms smuggling.

“Guinea-Bissau’s long history of political coups is largely linked to the fact that it has had weak institutions since independence from the Portuguese,” Ochieng explained. The country’s courts have consistently failed to effectively adjudicate electoral disputes or check government overreach, creating openings for military intervention.

The institutional weakness extends to the legislature as well. The opposition-dominated parliament has not convened since December 2023, when Embaló dissolved it following an attempted coup.

Meanwhile, drug trafficking continues to exert a powerful influence over the nation’s politics. Last year, a son of former President Malam Bacai Sanha was sentenced to more than six years in prison by a U.S. court for leading an international heroin trafficking ring, underscoring the deep connections between criminal networks and the country’s political elite.