Analysis: 1 month into the war, Iran is fighting Israel and the US with insurgent tactics

One month into their war with Iran, the United States and Israel are facing an adversary that operates more like an insurgency than a conventional military power. Despite sustaining daily airstrikes from two of the world’s most sophisticated armed forces, Iran continues to demonstrate its ability to project power and disrupt global commerce.

Tehran’s most potent strategic advantage remains its control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas traditionally flows. Even with its navy largely destroyed, Iran maintains the capability to hold this critical chokepoint hostage through its arsenal of missiles and drones developed over decades.

The economic consequences of this maritime stranglehold are reverberating globally. Asian nations, the primary customers for Persian Gulf oil, are experiencing the most acute effects. However, the interconnected nature of global oil markets means drivers in Europe and North America are also feeling the impact through rising fuel prices. The ripple effects extend beyond gasoline, as oil costs influence the production and transportation of countless goods worldwide.

For U.S. President Donald Trump, these economic pressures come at a politically sensitive time ahead of November’s midterm elections. Already facing criticism over the cost of living, the president now confronts additional economic headwinds directly attributable to the conflict.

Resolving the standoff presents significant challenges. While Trump claims peace talks are progressing, Iranian officials deny any such negotiations. The U.S. has established a deadline of April 6 at 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to reopen the strait, threatening to target Iranian power plants if the deadline is not met. The president has already deployed thousands of additional paratroopers and Marines to the region.

“Trump’s preference remains ‘escalate to de-escalate,'” according to an analysis by risk advisory firm Eurasia Group. “The U.S. is moving more ships and ground troops into the region and will be better prepared to escalate in mid-April.”

Despite the considerable damage inflicted upon Iran’s military infrastructure—Trump claims 91 percent of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed—Tehran maintains significant capabilities to continue inflicting harm. The Islamic Republic’s strategy focuses not on defeating the United States militarily but on surviving long enough to claim victory.

“The Islamic Republic understands that it cannot defeat the United States militarily,” notes Mideast security analyst Shukriya Bradost. “Instead, its objective is both simpler and more strategic: Survive the war long enough to claim victory.”

Iran’s military tactics mirror those of insurgent groups, including the “shoot and scoot” approach used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Shiite militias in Iraq—both Iranian proxies who have successfully employed similar strategies against technologically superior adversaries. Iran’s extensive territory—approximately the size of Alaska—and mountainous terrain provide natural advantages for such tactics.

The country’s vast network of air and sea bases, many constructed decades ago, along with more recently built underground facilities and mobile launchers disguised as commercial vehicles, allow Iranian forces to conceal their positions until the moment of attack. These mobile platforms can quickly relocate after launching, making them difficult targets for airstrikes.

Iran’s domestic situation, however, presents potential vulnerabilities. Both American and Israeli leaders have expressed hope that the Iranian people, who challenged the country’s theocracy in widespread protests earlier this year, might overthrow their government. Yet there are no signs of such an uprising, with many Iranians currently focused on seeking shelter from airstrikes.

The Iranian public also carries fresh memories of the government’s brutal crackdown on dissent, which resulted in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of detentions. The Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force, instrumental in suppressing those demonstrations, remains active despite being targeted throughout the conflict.

In what appears to be an indication of mounting pressure on Iranian forces, a Revolutionary Guard official recently announced that children as young as 12 are being recruited into the Basij. While described as a response to public demand, this move likely represents an effort to replenish diminished ranks.

Questions persist about Iran’s leadership structure. Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s new supreme leader, has not made public appearances since assuming power, with U.S. officials suggesting he has been injured during the conflict. Military and paramilitary units appear to be operating without centralized command.

Despite these internal challenges, military pressure may not be achieving Washington’s objectives. As the New York-based Soufan Center observed in a recent analysis: “Washington seems to believe that an overwhelming display of military power will force the Iranians to the negotiating table. But… the U.S. can’t expect to gain in peace what it was not able to take in war.”