Seizing Iran’s Kharg Island would be a risk, experts say

U.S. forces could seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but experts warn of high risks and limited benefits in the ongoing conflict between the two nations.

President Donald Trump has threatened to deploy ground troops to capture the strategic oil hub off Iran’s coast, a move that military analysts say could put American lives at risk without necessarily achieving the intended goal of ending hostilities.

Kharg Island serves as the primary terminal for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a crucial economic asset for Tehran. Located in the Persian Gulf opposite U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the island is vital to Iran’s oil industry because most of the country’s coastline is too shallow for large tanker ships to dock.

“Putting people on the ground might be the most psychologically compelling way of striking a blow at Iran,” said Michael Eisenstadt, former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “On the other hand, you’re putting your own troops at jeopardy. It’s not far from the mainland, so they can potentially rain a lot of destruction on the island.”

The conflict has escalated over the past month with Iran attacking U.S. bases and allies throughout the region. Tehran has also largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil typically passes, causing fuel prices to surge globally.

In a recent social media post, Trump claimed “great progress” in negotiations with Iran but threatened severe consequences if a deal isn’t reached soon. The president specifically mentioned obliterating Iranian power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly even desalination plants if the strait isn’t reopened immediately.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the Financial Times. When questioned about Iranian defenses on the island, he dismissed concerns, stating, “I don’t think they have any defense. We could take it very easily.”

However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio seemed to contradict this position, emphasizing that diplomacy remains the administration’s preference. While not ruling out military action, Rubio avoided directly endorsing a ground invasion when pressed on the matter.

U.S. forces have already conducted strikes against various targets on Kharg Island, including air defenses, a radar site, the airport, and a hovercraft base, according to satellite analysis by security research organizations.

Military preparations suggest the U.S. is positioning forces for potential ground operations. A Navy ship carrying approximately 2,500 Marines recently arrived in the Middle East, with another 2,500 Marines deploying from California. Additionally, at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division—a unit trained to parachute into hostile territory to secure key objectives—are expected soon.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, warns that seizing Kharg Island could trigger further escalation rather than force Iran to capitulate.

“It will be hard to take. It will be hard to hold,” Citrinowicz said. “And it might damage the economy, but not in a way that will force the Iranians to capitulate.”

He cautioned that Iran and its proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels, could intensify attacks across the Arabian Peninsula, potentially laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and launching drone strikes from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

Commodity researchers and investment banks have warned that major retaliation could have lasting implications for global energy prices and economic stability.

Military analysts suggest that a naval blockade to intercept oil shipments leaving Iranian ports might achieve similar economic pressure with less risk to U.S. personnel.

“Throw up a quarantine that seeks to seize Iranian oil shipments that are exiting the Gulf,” suggested Clayton Seigle, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A naval blockade could be maintained “outside the range of the lion’s share of Iran’s weapon systems.”

Eisenstadt agrees with this assessment, noting the proximity of Kharg Island to Iran’s mainland makes it vulnerable to missile, drone, and artillery attacks that would endanger American troops. Despite continued U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated its ability to launch attacks hundreds of miles away, including a recent strike on a Saudi air base that injured more than two dozen American personnel.

As tensions continue to simmer, the decision on whether to attempt a high-risk seizure of Kharg Island remains a critical strategic choice for the administration, with potentially far-reaching consequences for regional stability and global energy markets.