Americans Increasingly Support Global Leadership Despite Doubts About Military Readiness

Americans are growing more supportive of assertive U.S. global leadership even as they harbor deepening concerns about the military’s ability to meet international challenges, according to a new national defense survey released Wednesday by the Ronald Reagan Institute.

The 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey reveals that 64% of Americans want the United States to take a more engaged leadership role on the world stage, a view that transcends political divisions. However, this desire comes alongside significant skepticism about military capabilities—just 49% believe the U.S. armed forces can win a war overseas, while only 45% feel the military can effectively deter foreign aggression.

“The American people really do support an engaged American presence on the international stage,” said Rachel Hoff, policy director at the Reagan Institute and one of the survey’s authors. She noted that Americans still believe the U.S. “has the most powerful military in the world” and that American superiority “ultimately leads to a more peaceful and secure world.”

This paradoxical combination—desiring leadership while questioning capabilities—highlights a growing tension in public sentiment about America’s global posture.

Eroding Trust in Military Institutions

One of the survey’s most striking findings is the continued decline in public confidence in the armed forces. Only 49% of Americans now say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the military, representing a dramatic 21-point drop since 2018.

Hoff emphasized that this decline cuts across demographic and political lines. “It’s happened among Americans of all political stripes, both men and women, people of different age demographics,” she said. Though the numbers appear to have stabilized over the past two years, the shift represents one of the most significant drops in confidence for any major public institution.

When asked about the causes, Hoff pointed to one consistent theme: “It all has to do with something around kind of the politicization of the military. The American people really want to keep politics out of the military and keep the military focused on its core warfighting mission.”

Ukraine Support Surges as Peace Talks Begin

The survey found a significant increase in support for U.S. military aid to Ukraine, with 64% of Americans now backing weapons shipments—a nine-point jump since last year. Approximately two-thirds of Americans want Ukraine to prevail in the conflict, while 45% support continued backing until Kyiv reclaims all Russian-occupied territory.

The shift includes a notable change among Republican voters, which Hoff attributed partly to the political environment under President Trump. “With Donald Trump back in the White House with his administration leading on peace talks between the Russians and the Ukrainians, we’re seeing not just a desire for America to be in a peace-building role, but in fact for Ukraine to emerge as victorious,” she said.

Despite varying levels of support for specific outcomes, Hoff emphasized that Americans broadly “want to see peace in the region… they perceive Ukraine as an ally, they perceive Russia as an adversary.”

Taiwan Defense Gains Unprecedented Support

Perhaps the survey’s most dramatic finding involves Taiwan. Public backing for defending the island democracy has surged, with 60% of Americans now supporting the commitment of U.S. forces in the event of a Chinese invasion—up sharply from 48% last year.

Support for nearly every potential U.S. response—including economic sanctions, military deployments, equipment transfers, and establishing a no-fly zone—increased by approximately ten percentage points year over year.

This shift reflects Americans’ growing perception of China as the primary strategic threat to the United States. For the second consecutive year, China ranks as the top perceived threat, significantly ahead of Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

“Almost every response to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that we poll test has gone up around 10 points just in the last year,” Hoff said. “The American people are really clear-eyed about who our friends are and who our adversaries are.”

Strategic Implications for Policymakers

As the Pentagon reassesses its defense strategy in a complex global environment, the survey data convey a clear message: Americans expect strong leadership backed by credible military capabilities.

“The American people see the threats around the world, they understand who our friends and adversaries are, they want the U.S. to lead globally and to stand up in defense of freedom,” Hoff said. “They want an American military that’s resourced and postured to do so.”

For defense leaders, the findings suggest broad public support for maintaining a robust American presence worldwide while addressing the growing capability gap with rising powers.

“Americans really want the U.S. to be engaged, to be supporting our allies and partners,” Hoff concluded. The public wants a military “poised to balance American interests and advance American interests across each of these regions… to restore deterrence and restore peace.”