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Oil Prices Higher Under Trump’s Return Despite Misleading Chart Claims
Oil prices are higher now than they were when President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, contradicting a deceptive chart the president posted on social media Friday. The chart falsely suggests oil prices have fallen during his second term compared to when President Biden left office.
The misleading graphic, shared by Trump, features two bars with the text “Oil is Down 25% or $30 Per Barrel Since Sleepy Joe” at the top. It shows a tall blue bar labeled “Biden $120” towering over a smaller green bar reading “Trump $90,” with a downward-pointing arrow connecting them.
Market data tells a completely different story. When Biden left office and Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, US crude oil futures closed below $80 per barrel. The final full trading day under the Biden administration, January 17, 2025, showed similar pricing.
In stark contrast, after a significant price spike triggered by the war Trump launched against Iran in late February, US crude was trading above $94 per barrel for most of Friday morning – approximately 18% higher than when he took office.
The “$120” figure in Trump’s chart appears to reference the approximate peak in US crude closing prices during Biden’s term. However, this peak occurred in 2022, more than two years before Trump’s return to office, and was primarily driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – a critical context missing from the presentation.
Pavel Molchanov, an investment strategist specializing in commodities at Raymond James, noted in a Friday email that US crude had already declined to about $80 per barrel by the end of 2022, rendering the comparison between peak 2022 prices and current prices misleading.
“It just bears repeating: the spike in oil prices under Biden (long gone by when Trump took office) was due to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The spike under Trump was due to his own war of choice,” posted former Biden administration economic spokesperson Jesse Lee on social media in response to Trump’s chart.
Oil price movements during Trump’s second term have been volatile. US crude prices initially declined in early 2025 and remained below $60 for much of January 2026. However, prices jumped dramatically after US and Israeli military actions against Iran in late February, briefly exceeding $110 per barrel in early April before gradually declining to current levels.
Energy analysts emphasize that presidential administrations typically have limited direct influence on global oil prices. “Oil prices reflect global supply/demand fundamentals, which are much broader than who happens to be in the White House at any given time,” Molchanov explained.
This isn’t the first instance of Trump attempting to rewrite economic history. While promoting his economic record, he has repeatedly described high 2022 prices and inflation readings as if they were the figures Biden handed to him in 2025 – effectively taking credit for economic improvements that occurred during the final years of Biden’s term.
For example, Trump has claimed he “inherited” the worst inflation in US history, neglecting to mention that the inflation rate in January 2025 was 3.0% – significantly lower than the 40-year high of 9.1% recorded in June 2022. The most recent available inflation rate for March 2026 stands at 3.3%.
Trump has employed similar tactics when discussing gasoline prices, repeatedly referencing that gas topped $5 per gallon under Biden without acknowledging this peak occurred in June 2022. By inauguration day in January 2025, the AAA national average had decreased to approximately $3.12 per gallon. As of Friday, that average has risen to $4.55 per gallon during Trump’s second term.
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8 Comments
This highlights the importance of verifying information, especially when it comes to economic and market data. Sharing inaccurate charts can spread misinformation and erode public trust.
Absolutely. Fact-checking is crucial to maintain transparency and accountability, especially around sensitive issues like energy prices and policy.
The analysis in this fact check highlights the importance of transparency and accountability in government. We need leaders who are committed to providing accurate, data-driven information to the public.
Interesting fact check. It’s concerning to see misleading charts being shared, especially by public figures. I appreciate the detailed analysis comparing the actual oil price data under the two administrations.
This situation underscores the need for robust, independent fact-checking mechanisms to ensure the public has access to reliable information. Fact-checks like this help maintain the integrity of the democratic process.
It’s disappointing to see the use of misleading visuals to shape a narrative. The data presented in the fact check paints a very different picture than the chart shared by the former president.
This is a good reminder to always cross-check information, especially when it comes from political figures. Fact-checking is an essential part of maintaining a well-informed citizenry.
I’m curious to see how this develops and if the administration will address the discrepancy. Accurate data and honest reporting are vital for informed public discourse.