Fact-check: Trump Claims U.S. Consumer Confidence Is ‘Way Up’

Trump’s False Claim on Consumer Confidence Contradicted by Economic Data

President Donald Trump’s recent assertion that “consumer confidence is way up” during a White House small business summit on May 4 stands in stark contrast to multiple economic indicators that show precisely the opposite trend.

Three standard measurements of consumer satisfaction reveal that Americans are less confident about the economy now than they were at the end of President Joe Biden’s administration, with one metric placing consumer sentiment near historic lows.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which has tracked Americans’ economic outlook monthly since 1978, registered at 53.3 for March 2026. This represents the ninth-lowest score in the survey’s history. Notably, five of these nine lowest marks have occurred during Trump’s second term. For context, the index typically ranges between 50 and 110, with 112 marking the highest confidence levels ever recorded.

Similarly, the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization that has measured consumer sentiment for decades, shows significantly lower ratings during Trump’s second term compared to Biden’s final months in office. In Biden’s last full month as president, the rating stood at 109.5, while April 2026 under Trump recorded just 92.8. The metric averaged 104.3 during Biden’s final 16 months but has averaged only 94.6 during the first 16 months of Trump’s return to office.

Public opinion polls tell a similar story. Silver Bulletin, a polling aggregator published by FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, tracks presidential approval ratings on economic issues. Trump’s net approval for handling the economy has deteriorated dramatically during his second term. Though he began with positive ratings after his January 2025 inauguration, his numbers turned negative the following month and have continued to decline. By early May, disapproval exceeded approval by a substantial 24 percentage points.

When asked for evidence supporting the president’s claim, White House spokesperson Kush Desai pointed to “the hard data of actual consumer spending and retail sales figures,” arguing these metrics show “American consumers are resilient and continue to spend.”

However, personal consumption expenditures – a federal statistic tracking Americans’ spending patterns – adjusted for inflation have mostly fallen since Trump returned to the White House, after generally increasing during Biden’s final 15 months in office.

Retail sales data does provide some support for the administration’s position. Year-over-year monthly changes in retail sales averaged 2.47% during Biden’s final 14 months, compared to 3.75% during Trump’s first 14 months back in office. But experts caution that this metric has significant limitations.

Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted that while retail sales reflect actual consumer behavior rather than survey responses, this figure isn’t adjusted for inflation. The increased sales might therefore reflect higher prices resulting from Trump’s tariff policies rather than genuine consumer confidence.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum, emphasized that personal consumption expenditures provide “a more comprehensive and reliable measure of household spending” than retail sales. Combined with the consumer sentiment surveys, this data paints a picture at odds with Trump’s characterization.

The disconnect between Trump’s assertion and economic reality highlights the challenges his administration faces in managing public perception during his second term. With multiple metrics showing diminished consumer confidence and economic concerns persisting among Americans, the president’s claim that consumer confidence is “way up” appears to contradict the preponderance of available evidence.

Given that three traditional metrics of consumer confidence show sentiment ranging from low to near historic lows, alongside downward-trending inflation-adjusted consumer spending, Trump’s statement fails to align with economic realities facing American consumers in 2026.