Russian Disinformation Aims to Shift Blame and Deflect Attention, Says Polish Researcher

Russian propaganda machine quickly reframed a 2025 drone incursion into Poland as a “provocation,” according to a Polish political scientist who analyzed the Kremlin’s real-time disinformation tactics during a security incident.

Wojciech Kotowicz of the University of Warmia and Mazury detailed how Russian state media and coordinated online networks rapidly deployed counter-narratives when Russian drones violated Polish airspace during a mass attack on Ukraine on the night of September 9-10, 2025.

“Within literally hours of confirmation of the airspace violation, Russian state media, troll farms and coordinated bot networks launched a campaign aimed at shifting responsibility and portraying Poland as escalating the conflict,” Kotowicz explained.

According to his research, pro-Kremlin outlets pushed two main narratives. The first suggested the drone might have been Ukrainian, with Poland and Western allies falsely labeling it Russian to justify escalation and potentially draw NATO into direct conflict with Moscow. Kotowicz described this claim as “especially cynical” considering Russia was conducting large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian housing and infrastructure at the time.

The second narrative, which Kotowicz characterized as “absurd but effectively spread,” acknowledged the drone might have been Russian but framed its presence over Poland as merely a technical error or accidental deviation. In this version, Poland’s defensive response was portrayed as “hysterical” and “provocative.”

These tactics align with broader Russian disinformation patterns targeting Poland, Kotowicz noted. Every border incident or tension in Polish-Russian relations becomes fodder for portraying Poland as an “aggressor” or “provocateur” on the international stage.

The political scientist emphasized that Moscow’s objective isn’t necessarily to convince all Poles to adopt pro-Russian positions. Instead, the goal is to “sow confusion, weaken trust in official information, deepen existing political divisions, and reduce the sense of national unity in the face of security threats.”

Russian propaganda consistently portrays Poland as Russophobic, lacking sovereignty, and functioning as a tool of the United States. Another common narrative aims to drive a wedge between Poles and Ukrainians by suggesting Warsaw harbors territorial ambitions in western Ukraine.

Additional disinformation themes include exaggerating Poland’s economic challenges and blaming them solely on the country’s support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Historical issues are also manipulated to inflame tensions with neighboring countries and paint Poland as having revisionist territorial ambitions.

Kotowicz noted that these messages are carefully targeted at specific audiences, from farmers and business owners to nationalist groups. The overarching strategic aim appears to be discrediting Poland as a regional leader in Eastern Europe and undermining its credibility as a NATO partner.

His analysis stems from a research project conducted last year at the University of Warmia and Mazury titled “The impact of Russian disinformation on shaping public opinion in Eastern European countries: analysis and countermeasures.”

Security experts have noted that Russia’s current budget for propaganda operations vastly exceeds what was allocated during the Soviet era. The digital age has provided the Kremlin with unprecedented abilities to disseminate disinformation, with the internet, smartphones, and social media platforms enabling instantaneous access to millions of individuals across Europe and beyond.

The 2025 drone incident highlights the evolving nature of hybrid warfare, where information operations accompany and sometimes precede physical incursions, creating a complex security environment for NATO’s eastern flank countries like Poland.