Climate Change and Misinformation: A Compounding Threat to National Security

In its latest annual global risk assessment, the World Economic Forum has highlighted a troubling convergence of threats facing nations worldwide. Misinformation and disinformation ranked second, while extreme weather events placed fourth among the most severe short-term risks over the next two years. Looking further ahead, the outlook appears even more concerning – the top six risks over the next decade all relate to either information manipulation or climate and environmental disruptions.

These twin crises of climate change and information manipulation create a dangerous synergy that exceeds their individual threats. From fabricated stories about wildfires in Los Angeles and Hawaii to coordinated Russian and extremist propaganda campaigns during Hurricane Helene, misinformation is actively distorting public responses to climate-related disasters. While climate denial has long plagued environmental policy discussions, these evolving dynamics now pose direct threats to national security and societal stability.

Throughout my career at senior levels of government and industry, I’ve observed how reliable information forms the backbone of effective risk management, whether addressing hurricanes in Florida or counterterrorism operations. This understanding has traditionally kept civil servants in national security, disaster response, and federal science agencies focused on facts rather than political positioning. During the previous Trump administration, even the Secretary of Defense warned about climate change’s security implications, while bipartisan congressional legislation formally recognized climate change as “a direct threat to the national security of the United States.”

Russia’s exploitation of climate disasters illustrates this compound threat. Following devastating storms and flooding across Spain, Poland, and the United States in late 2024, Moscow orchestrated campaigns claiming that support for Ukraine had left these countries vulnerable. These efforts aimed to sow discord within NATO countries and undermine confidence in Western democracies. Similarly, extreme weather events that disrupt voting access create grievances that authoritarian regimes can exploit to interfere in democratic elections.

The U.S. intelligence community has explicitly warned that climate change “will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests.” The financial toll is staggering – natural disasters now cost the United States approximately $130 billion annually, a sixfold increase since the 1980s, while causing American fatalities at roughly twice the historical rate. Heat waves, wildfires, and flooding create operational challenges for U.S. armed forces and drive increasing demands for disaster relief, with military deployments for over 240 extreme weather crises globally since 2022.

Climate-driven disasters trigger cascading effects: humanitarian crises, regional instability, increased migration pressures, and damage to critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, strategic competitors like Russia and China exploit climate vulnerabilities to expand their influence with key international partners at America’s expense.

The necessity for accurate climate information transcends political divides. The National Guard responds to floods, fires, and disasters across both Republican and Democratic states. FEMA disaster relief predominantly flows to red states, which face disproportionate exposure to hurricanes and related threats. The annual bipartisan defense authorization continues to incorporate climate resilience provisions for military installations, while climate resilience policies maintain broad support among American voters. In Florida specifically, the combination of intensifying disasters and rampant misinformation endangers lives, damages livelihoods, threatens military communities, and divides citizens.

While the future holds many uncertainties, two realities are clear: extreme weather events will intensify for the foreseeable future, and information manipulation will remain a persistent challenge. Failure to address these interconnected threats compromises U.S. national security regardless of political affiliation. Meeting these challenges requires coordinated action across state and local governments, academic institutions, civil society organizations, and the private sector. National leaders must prioritize these threats and implement strategies that strengthen, rather than undermine, our collective security.