No chance asteroid will slam into the moon in 2032, NASA says

NASA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR will safely miss the Moon in 2032, providing relief to astronomers who had previously calculated a small but significant chance of impact.

In an announcement from Cape Canaveral on Thursday, NASA officials stated there is now “zero chance” that the asteroid will collide with the Moon during its close approach on December 22, 2032. This conclusive assessment comes after several months of uncertainty regarding the asteroid’s trajectory.

Scientists had initially calculated a 4.3% probability of a direct lunar impact, a figure that warranted continued monitoring. The breakthrough came when the Webb Space Telescope captured detailed observations of the asteroid in February, allowing astronomers to precisely map its orbital path.

“The new data has allowed us to calculate that 2024 YR will pass approximately 13,200 miles from the lunar surface,” said Dr. Eleanor Hicks, a planetary defense specialist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “While that’s relatively close in astronomical terms, it’s a comfortable margin that eliminates any impact concerns.”

The asteroid, measuring approximately 200 feet (60 meters) across, was first detected in late 2024, sparking immediate interest from the astronomical community due to its potential proximity to Earth. Early tracking data initially suggested a possible Earth impact scenario, prompting NASA to assign it a temporary elevated risk rating.

Further analysis in 2025 ruled out any collision with Earth for at least the next century, though the lunar impact possibility remained on the table until this recent announcement. At its size, 2024 YR is classified as a moderate-sized near-Earth object—large enough to cause significant local damage in the unlikely event of an Earth impact, but not a global threat.

“This case illustrates the critical importance of our near-Earth object monitoring programs,” explained Dr. Marcus Chen of the Minor Planet Center. “When we first spot these objects, their orbital paths contain significant uncertainties. Each additional observation helps us refine our models and make more accurate predictions.”

The Webb Space Telescope’s contribution to this refined assessment highlights the versatility of NASA’s flagship infrared observatory. While primarily designed for deep space astronomy, Webb’s exceptional sensitivity allows it to observe relatively dim solar system objects when needed.

Asteroid tracking and planetary defense have become increasingly prioritized by space agencies worldwide over the past decade. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, established in 2016, coordinates these efforts for the United States, working alongside international partners to identify and characterize potentially hazardous objects.

The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022 successfully demonstrated humanity’s ability to alter an asteroid’s path if necessary, impacting the moonlet Dimorphos and changing its orbital period around the larger asteroid Didymos.

“Even though 2024 YR never posed a significant threat to Earth, tracking these objects gives us valuable practice for detecting and responding to potentially hazardous asteroids,” said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. “Each time we refine our predictions, we improve our overall planetary defense capabilities.”

While 2024 YR will safely pass by both Earth and the Moon, NASA continues to track over 30,000 known near-Earth objects, with approximately 50 new discoveries each week. The agency estimates that it has identified about 95% of the largest potentially hazardous asteroids measuring one kilometer or larger, though many smaller objects remain undetected.

NASA’s announcement comes amid increased public interest in asteroid detection and deflection strategies, particularly following recent high-profile asteroid approaches and the success of missions like DART and OSIRIS-REx.