U.S. government data released Friday has cast significant doubt on China’s commitment to purchase American soybeans, contradicting claims made by the Trump administration following last month’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The Agriculture Department report, published after the government reopened, revealed only two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit in South Korea, totaling 332,000 metric tons. This falls drastically short of the 12 million metric tons that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins had claimed China agreed to purchase by January, and nowhere near the 25 million metric tons she said they would buy annually for the next three years.

American farmers had been hopeful that China, their largest soybean customer, would return to purchasing their crops. However, Tanner Ehmke, lead economist for grains and oilseed at CoBank, explained that China has little incentive to buy from the U.S. right now given their existing stockpile of soybeans purchased from Brazil and other South American countries this year.

“We are still not even close to what has been advertised from the U.S. in terms of what the agreement would have been,” Ehmke said.

Adding to the uncertainty, Beijing has not confirmed any detailed soybean purchase agreement, only acknowledging that the two countries have reached “consensus” on expanding trade in farm products. Ehmke suggested that even if China promised to buy American soybeans, the commitment might have been conditional on attractive pricing.

President Trump attempted to reassure markets Friday, telling reporters that Chinese officials had spoken with his team and promised to purchase more soybeans. “They’re in the process of doing not only a little bit but they’ll be doing a lot of soybean purchases,” Trump said, though he offered no specifics on quantities or timing.

Despite a 10-percentage-point reduction following the summit, the Chinese tariff on American soybeans remains steep at approximately 24%. This tariff ensures that U.S. soybeans continue to be more expensive than Brazilian alternatives.

Soybean prices fell sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 per bushel on Friday following the USDA report. “That’s the market being shocked by the lack of Chinese demand that was confirmed in USDA data today,” Ehmke explained. While prices remain higher than the pre-agreement level of $10.60 per bushel, continued lack of significant Chinese purchases could drive prices lower.

Before the trade agreement, Trump had promised farmers an aid package to help them weather the trade war with China. That assistance was put on hold during the government shutdown, and it remains unclear whether the administration will offer farmers aid similar to what Trump provided during his first administration.

This situation echoes experiences from Trump’s first trade war with China. The 2020 trade agreement promised massive purchases of U.S. crops, but the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade just as the agreement was implemented. U.S. farm exports to China hit a record in 2022 but subsequently declined.

Despite China’s reduced purchases, soybean prices remain slightly higher than a year ago. This is partly because this year’s soybean crop is somewhat smaller, while domestic demand has remained strong due to continued growth in biodiesel production.

However, farmers are struggling with soaring costs of fertilizer, seed, equipment, and labor, which are eroding their profits. Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, has expressed concern that thousands of farmers could go out of business this year without significant Chinese purchases or government aid.

“We don’t want to assume they won’t [follow through]. But it’s going to be a wonderful day when we actually deliver those soybeans, and when there’s my money in hand and so forth and the transaction’s complete,” Ragland said.

China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, purchased more than $12.5 billion of the nearly $24.5 billion in U.S. soybeans exported last year. However, China halted American soybean purchases this year after Trump imposed tariffs, shifting more purchases to South America. Even before the trade war, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports last year, while the U.S. share fell to 21%, according to World Bank data.

Ragland noted that every vendor he speaks with has indicated price increases for next year, which will continue to pressure farmers. “We’re still looking at sharp losses and the red ink as we figure budgets for 2026 is still very much in play,” he said.