Trump, Harris and big money transform Tennessee special election into marquee contest

A special election in Tennessee’s heavily Republican 7th congressional district has unexpectedly erupted into a high-stakes political showdown with national implications for the 2024 midterms. What began as a low-profile race has transformed into a battleground attracting millions in outside funding and appearances by major political figures.

The December 2 contest marks the first federal election since Democrats’ strong showing in the November 4 elections, which many viewed as a referendum on former President Donald Trump. Republicans are now determined to change the narrative by investing heavily in the race to replace retired Republican Rep. Mark Green.

MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, has poured over $1 million into supporting Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot with combat experience overseas. This represents the organization’s first campaign involvement since the 2022 presidential race.

“I’m very concerned that we could be caught with our pants down,” warned Rep. Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican, referring to the election’s timing just after Thanksgiving. Republican allies have invited Trump to visit Tennessee after he hosted a virtual rally for Van Epps last week.

On the Democratic side, State Rep. Aftyn Behn, described as a progressive community organizer, has secured substantial national backing. The House Majority PAC committed $1 million for television and digital advertising, while former Vice President Kamala Harris appeared at a Tennessee Democratic Party canvassing kickoff in Nashville during her book tour, though she didn’t directly campaign alongside Behn.

Libby Schneider, deputy executive director at the Democratic National Committee, emphasized that a strong performance by Behn—even without victory—would energize the party’s efforts to reclaim the House in 2024. “We continue to overperform in places where we have no business overperforming,” Schneider noted. In four previous special House elections this year, Democratic candidates exceeded Harris’ vote share by an average of 9 percentage points.

The special election was triggered after Green’s retirement earlier this year. He had won the district by 21 percentage points in 2022, matching Trump’s margin there. The district was one of three redrawn in 2022 redistricting that sought to diminish Nashville’s Democratic influence.

Van Epps, who previously served as state general services commissioner, has aligned himself closely with Trump, whose endorsement helped him navigate a crowded primary. “I will have your back 100%,” Van Epps told the former president during their virtual rally, pledging to focus on cost reduction, veterans’ issues, immigration enforcement, and preventing transgender women from competing in women’s sports.

Behn, who describes herself as a “pissed off social worker,” narrowly secured the Democratic nomination. A former Bernie Sanders supporter, she has focused her campaign on affordability concerns, particularly emphasizing her proposal to eliminate Tennessee’s grocery tax.

“We have been building the coalition of the disenchanted,” Behn said at a Nashville rally. “If you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, we are your campaign.” She has criticized Trump’s economic policies, including his tariffs and tax legislation, while also attacking Republicans over their handling of Jeffrey Epstein-related documents.

The high stakes have attracted significant outside spending. Your Community PAC, which has invested over $16 million in Democratic candidates since last year, is attempting to undermine Van Epps by promoting Jon Thorp, a conservative independent candidate. Their mailers target Republican voters by portraying Van Epps as a “hedge fund billionaire-backed RINO.”

Meanwhile, conservative groups have mobilized against Behn. Conservatives for American Excellence, supported by megadonor Ken Griffin, has committed over $600,000 to advertisements opposing her candidacy. Club for Growth, a pro-school voucher organization, has spent $300,000 on ads highlighting Behn’s self-description as “radical.”

Despite this influx of national attention and funding, Tennessee political strategist Chip Saltsman still expects Van Epps to win, though potentially by a narrower margin than previous Republican victories in the district. He suggested Republicans prepare for “a extra couple swigs of Pepto Bismol on election night,” adding the situation could “cause a little heartburn, but they’re doing everything they need to do.”

For Democrats, even a closer-than-expected result could signal expanding opportunities in the 2024 House battleground. For Republicans, anything short of a decisive victory in this traditionally safe district could indicate vulnerability as they defend their narrow House majority next year.