Rural America More Optimistic About Nation’s Future While Urban Areas Show Growing Concern

Pessimism about America’s future has increased in cities since last year, while rural communities are expressing more optimism about the country’s direction, according to a new survey from the American Communities Project.

The study, which offers a nuanced view of local concerns by categorizing counties into 15 different community types, reveals significant shifts in outlook across various demographic and geographic divides following President Donald Trump’s return to office.

Despite Trump’s frequent claims about rampant crime in major urban centers, residents of America’s largest cities are now less likely to cite crime and gun violence as primary concerns than they were two years ago. Meanwhile, optimism has declined in areas with large Hispanic populations.

Across all communities, however, one worry remains universal: the rising cost of living.

“Concerns about inflation are across the board,” said Dante Chinni, founder and director of the American Communities Project. “One thing that truly unites the country is economic angst.”

Rural Areas See Brighter Future Despite Economic Challenges

Rural residents express growing confidence in the nation’s trajectory, even as many continue to struggle with economic hardships. About 60% of people living in what the survey classifies as “Rural Middle America” now say they’re hopeful about the country’s future over the next few years, a significant increase from 43% in the 2024 survey.

Carl Gruber, a 42-year-old disabled resident from Newark, Ohio, expressed shock at paying $15 for a Halloween candy variety pack at his local Kroger supermarket. Despite receiving federal food aid, Gruber maintains optimism about the nation’s direction, largely based on his belief that Trump’s policies will eventually lower prices.

“Right now, the president is trying to get companies who moved their businesses out of the country to move them back,” said Gruber, whose support for Trump has occasionally wavered following delays in his monthly food benefit during the federal government shutdown. “So, maybe we’ll start to see prices come down.”

Similar sentiments are echoed in other rural communities. Kimmie Pace, a 33-year-old unemployed mother of four from northwest Georgia, described feeling anxious “every time I go to the grocery store” but remains confident in Trump’s leadership. “Trump’s in charge, and I trust him, even if we’re not seeing the benefits yet,” she said.

Urban America’s Growing Pessimism

In stark contrast, the percentage of big-city residents expressing hope about the nation’s future has declined from 55% last year to 45% in the latest survey.

Robert Engel, a 61-year-old federal worker from San Antonio, Texas, voices concern not just about current conditions but about what lies ahead for future generations. While approaching retirement with relative financial security, Engel worries about the economic landscape his adult children will navigate.

His concerns have deepened as inflation has recently worsened under Trump’s administration. Consumer prices in September increased at an annual rate of 3%, up from 2.3% in April when the president began implementing substantial tariff increases.

“It’s not just the economy, but the state of democracy and polarization,” Engel explained. “It’s a real worry. I try to be cautiously optimistic, but it’s very, very hard.”

Crime Perceptions Shift in Urban Areas

Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric about deploying the National Guard to cities like Chicago, New York, and Portland to combat what he described as “runaway urban crime,” the survey indicates that urban residents are less concerned about crime than before.

Data confirms that violent crime in most major cities has declined in recent years. Angel Gamboa, a retired municipal worker in Austin, Texas, believes Trump’s claims about urban crime don’t align with reality in his city of roughly one million people.

“I don’t want to say it’s overblown, because crime is a serious subject,” Gamboa said. “But I feel like there’s an agenda to scare Americans, and it’s so unnecessary.”

Instead, big-city residents are more likely to identify immigration and health care as pressing community issues. About 65% of residents in these areas report noticing immigration-related changes in their communities over the past year, compared to only about 40% in evangelical hubs or rural middle America.

Gamboa has witnessed these changes firsthand, noting that day laborers who once gathered outside a local Home Depot seeking work no longer appear due to increased immigration enforcement. “Immigrants were not showing up there to commit crimes,” he said. “They were showing up to help their families. But when ICE was in the parking lot, that’s all it took to scatter people who were just trying to find a job.”

Hispanic Communities Express Growing Uncertainty

After Hispanic voters shifted significantly toward Trump in the 2024 election, the poll reveals that residents of heavily Hispanic areas now feel less optimistic about their communities’ future than before the election.

Carmen Maldonado describes her community of Kissimmee, Florida—a fast-growing, majority-Hispanic city of about 80,000 residents south of Orlando—as “seriously troubled.” The survey found that only 58% of residents in similar communities are hopeful about their community’s future, a dramatic drop from 78% last year.

“It’s not just hopelessness, but fear,” said Maldonado, a 61-year-old retired National Guard member. She reports that people in her community, including fellow Puerto Ricans who are American citizens, feel anxious about the administration’s aggressive immigration policies.

Hispanic respondents are also substantially less likely to express hope about their children’s future or the next generation, with only 55% expressing optimism compared to 69% in July 2024.

“My hopelessness comes from the fact that we are a large part of what makes up the United States,” Maldonado said, “and sometimes I cry thinking about these families.”

The American Communities Project/Ipsos Fragmentation Study surveyed 5,489 American adults between August 18 and September 4, 2025, using both online panels and telephone interviews. The margin of sampling error for the overall study is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.