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Chicago Sees Violent Labor Day Weekend Amid Broader Crime Rate Improvements
More than 50 people were shot and nine killed in Chicago during the Labor Day holiday weekend from August 29 to September 2, sparking renewed national debate about the city’s crime rate. The violence prompted former President Donald Trump to declare on Truth Social that “CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD!” – a claim that experts say is demonstrably false.
Despite the holiday weekend violence, Chicago has actually seen significant reductions in violent crime this year. Homicide rates in the city declined more than 30% in the first six months of this year compared to 2024, according to data from the city’s Violence Reduction Dashboard.
Following the violent weekend, Trump suggested he would deploy the National Guard to Chicago, telling reporters, “We’re going in — I didn’t say when.” This prompted swift pushback from Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who held a joint news conference stating, “There is no emergency that warrants deployment of troops.” Pritzker indicated the state would challenge any such deployment in court.
Trump appeared to backpedal on these comments the following day, telling reporters he was still making a determination whether to send forces to Chicago or New Orleans.
Crime statistics experts have disputed the characterization of Chicago as the world’s “murder capital.” Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which aggregates crime data from law enforcement agencies nationwide, stated plainly: “No, Chicago is not the murder capital of the world, there are many cities with higher murder counts and rates globally.”
A study by the Igarapé Institute, an independent Brazilian think tank, ranked the world’s 50 cities with the highest homicide rates in 2023, and Chicago was not on the list. Several U.S. cities did make the ranking, including Memphis (21st), New Orleans (25th), St. Louis (30th), Baltimore (36th), Cleveland (37th), Detroit (48th), and Washington, D.C. (50th). The top ten cities globally were located in Ecuador, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico.
The White House did accurately note that “for 13 consecutive years, Chicago has had the most murders of any U.S. city” and that “for seven consecutive years, Chicago has had the highest murder rate among U.S. cities with more than one million people.” However, experts point out that limiting the comparison to cities with populations over one million is an arbitrarily narrow metric.
“Chicago does have the highest number of homicides in our sample of 30 U.S. cities,” explained Ernesto Lopez, senior research specialist at the Council on Criminal Justice. “Relying on homicide counts at the city level is misleading, however, because generally cities with more people have a higher number of homicides. Chicago does not have the highest rate of homicides.”
When compared to cities with populations over 250,000, Chicago ranked 15th for its murder rate. Among cities with populations over 500,000, it ranked 10th.
Mayor Johnson has highlighted significant improvements in public safety, noting that “homicides are down nearly 32%, shootings and shooting victims are down nearly 40%, robberies are down 35%, and carjackings are down significantly.” A fact sheet from the mayor’s office reported that overall violent crime decreased 21.6% so far this year.
Independent experts have verified these claims. Asher confirmed, “Murder is down 31%, shootings are down 36%, and carjackings are down 50% in 2025 compared to 2024 through August per the dashboard. Chicago has also had the second fewest murders through August since 1965 this year and the fewest shooting victims in decades.”
Lopez noted that the drop in homicide in Chicago during the first half of this year was approximately double the decline seen in other large American cities. However, he added an important nuance: “Overall, Chicago’s declines mirror patterns of reported violent crime in other large cities across the country, but the level of violent crime in the city remains substantially higher than the average in our sample.”
The conflicting narratives about Chicago’s crime situation highlight how statistics can be selectively presented to support political viewpoints. As Lopez observed, “It’s relatively easy to cherry-pick data to advance a certain political narrative. For example, it can be true that both crime is decreasing and that it’s too high. Just because the numbers are down doesn’t mean the numbers are good.”
The more crucial questions, according to Lopez, involve identifying the most effective strategies to reduce crime both short and long-term, while balancing cost-effectiveness and constitutional rights.
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6 Comments
This is a concerning situation in Chicago. While the recent holiday weekend saw a spike in violence, the broader trend shows declining homicide rates in the city. It would be interesting to understand the nuanced factors behind these statistics.
I agree, a more balanced perspective is needed rather than simply labeling Chicago the “murder capital.” Deploying the National Guard should be a last resort option with clear justification.
It’s good to see that Chicago has made progress in reducing violent crime this year, even if the holiday weekend saw a spike. Sensational claims about it being the “murder capital” don’t seem accurate or constructive. Interested to learn more about the city’s crime reduction strategies.
I agree, the mayor and governor’s pushback against deploying the National Guard seems prudent. That should be an absolute last resort if all other options have been exhausted.
Trump’s claim about Chicago being the “murder capital of the world” seems hyperbolic and not supported by the data. Homicide rates have actually declined significantly so far this year. Curious to learn more about the local crime reduction efforts.
Yes, the broader context is important. While holiday weekend violence is concerning, the longer-term trend of declining homicides suggests the situation is improving, not worsening as Trump suggests.