Listen to the article
Economic Indicators Mixed During Trump’s Second Term
The US economy has shown mixed signals during the first 14 months of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, with notable slowdowns in job growth and concerns over inflation following international tensions.
Employment growth has decelerated markedly since January 2025, with only 369,000 new jobs created through March 2026. This represents a significant slowdown compared to the 1,565,000 jobs added during the final 14 months of the Biden administration. Much of this sluggishness can be attributed to Trump’s deliberate reduction of the federal workforce, which has fallen by 352,000 positions or 11.7% since his inauguration.
The private sector has fared somewhat better, adding 609,000 jobs, though this still lags behind the 1,044,000 private-sector positions created during the preceding period under Biden. Despite Trump’s April 2025 announcement of sweeping tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day” with promises that “jobs and factories will come roaring back,” manufacturing employment has continued to decline, losing 82,000 jobs during his first 14 months in office.
Unemployment has ticked up slightly from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.3% in March 2026, though this remains well below the historical median rate of 5.5% since 1948. Job openings have decreased by 7.4% to 6.9 million, while the number of unemployed job-seekers has risen to 7.2 million.
Inflation has proven stubborn, with the Consumer Price Index increasing 3.3% over the most recent 12-month period, slightly worse than the 3.0% rate when Trump took office. The February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran have pushed gasoline prices up nearly 30% since inauguration, reaching $4.04 per gallon by late April.
On a positive note, wage increases have accelerated even after adjusting for inflation. Average weekly earnings of private-sector workers rose 1.0% in real terms during Trump’s first 14 months, compared to just 0.4% in the preceding period under Biden. Rank-and-file workers saw similar gains with real earnings increasing by 1.2%.
Economic growth finished at a respectable but modest 2.1% for 2025, the weakest annual GDP expansion since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The year was characterized by a rollercoaster pattern with weak first and fourth quarters (declining 0.6% and growing just 0.5% respectively) but strong second and third quarters (3.8% and 4.4% growth).
Consumer sentiment has plummeted to historic lows, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary April sentiment index hitting 47.6 – the lowest reading since at least 1978. This represents a 24.1-point decline since Trump’s inauguration, reflecting widespread concerns about inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Immigration enforcement has seen dramatic changes, with southern border apprehensions down nearly 92% compared to Biden’s final year in office. This stems largely from policy changes implemented on Trump’s first day in office that effectively eliminated asylum applications at the border. Refugee admissions have similarly plummeted by 92.5%, with an exception made for South Africa’s Afrikaner population.
The stock market has experienced volatility but ultimately shown strong gains. Despite sharp declines following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, major indexes have rebounded to new heights. The S&P 500 closed 19% higher on April 22 than it was just before Trump’s January inauguration, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq surged by 25.6% during the same period.
Other economic indicators have been mixed. The trade deficit decreased by 14.15% during the most recent 12 months compared to 2024. Domestic oil production increased 2.7% to a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, while imports declined almost 6.6%. The federal debt has continued rising, up 8.6% under Trump thus far, though at a slower pace than the one-third increase seen during Biden’s term.
As the administration moves deeper into its term, analysts will be closely watching how these economic trends develop, particularly given ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of the administration’s tariff policies.
Fact Checker
Verify the accuracy of this article using The Disinformation Commission analysis and real-time sources.
7 Comments
The reduction in federal workforce is notable. I’d be curious to know more about the reasoning and potential long-term impacts of that policy decision.
Good point. A smaller federal workforce could mean streamlined government, but also risks reduced public services and oversight. The broader economic tradeoffs would be worth exploring further.
Inflation concerns are always worrying. I hope policymakers can find ways to address that while also supporting job creation and broader economic stability.
Interesting insights on the mixed economic performance during Trump’s second term. The slowdown in job growth and manufacturing is concerning, despite the promised tariff boost. I wonder what other factors may be contributing to these trends.
This is a complex economic picture with both positives and negatives. It underscores the challenges of managing an economy and the need for nuanced, evidence-based analysis beyond political rhetoric.
Well said. Navigating the tradeoffs and uncertainties of economic policy is no easy feat. Thoughtful, nonpartisan assessments will be crucial.
The article highlights some important economic indicators to watch during this period. It will be interesting to see if the slowdown in job growth and manufacturing persists or if the economy regains momentum.