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Nigeria’s Former Power Minister’s Generation Claims Contradicted by Industry Data
Nigeria’s former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, has come under scrutiny for claims made in his resignation letter that electricity generation in the country peaked at over 6,000 megawatts (MW) during his tenure. An investigation into these assertions reveals discrepancies between the minister’s statements and verified industry data.
Adelabu, who resigned last week after serving since August 2023, stated in his April 22 letter that available generation capacity was between 3,500MW and 4,500MW when he assumed office. He credited President Tinubu’s “visionary leadership and the Renewed Hope Agenda” with improvements across the electricity value chain, specifically citing peak generation exceeding 6,000 megawatts as a key achievement.
“The sector has recorded measurable progress,” Adelabu wrote, attributing the claimed improvement to “the integration of the Zungeru Hydropower Plant and the rehabilitation of several thermal power assets.”
However, comprehensive data obtained from the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) contradicts these assertions. The records, covering quarterly performance from 2023 to 2025 and monthly data from January to March 2026, show that Nigeria’s power grid never recorded a verified peak generation of 6,000MW or higher during the period in question.
According to APGC figures, Nigeria’s peak generation reached approximately 5,000MW in 2023, improved to about 5,528MW in 2024, and ranged between 5,300MW and 5,801MW in 2025. By March 2026, available capacity had actually declined to around 4,089MW.
NERC’s quarterly data reveals a volatile pattern rather than sustained growth. Average generation capacity rose to 4,922MW in Q4 2023 shortly after Adelabu assumed office (up from 4,211MW in Q3), but dropped to 4,249MW in Q1 2024. While it recovered to approximately 5,296MW by Q4 2024 and reached about 5,430MW in Q3 2025, it subsequently declined to around 4,089MW by March 2026.
Nigeria’s power sector has long been plagued by inadequate and unreliable electricity supply despite having an installed capacity consistently exceeding 13,000MW. The gap between potential and actual electricity delivered to consumers remains substantial due to persistent constraints throughout the generation, transmission, and distribution chain.
Industry experts, including APGC CEO Joy Ogaji, warn against confusing different power sector metrics. She clarifies that while installed capacity remains at 13,000-14,000MW, available capacity typically ranges between 4,900-7,300MW, with peak generation reaching 5,000-5,800MW. The average power actually delivered to consumers hovers around 4,100-4,600MW.
“These figures are not interchangeable,” Ogaji explains. “Peak generation represents a momentary high point, not sustained output.”
This distinction is critical for understanding Nigeria’s electricity challenges. Even when peak generation reached its highest recorded point of approximately 5,528MW in 2024, the average supply remained around 4,100-4,200MW, highlighting the significant gap between potential and actual delivery.
The implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which decentralized the electricity market and aimed to create a more investment-friendly framework, was correctly highlighted by Adelabu as an accomplishment during his tenure. However, the structural constraints limiting Nigeria’s power output remain largely unresolved.
Nigeria’s electricity sector continues to face fundamental challenges including aging infrastructure, gas supply constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and distribution inefficiencies. These systemic issues have prevented the country from capitalizing on its full generation potential despite numerous reform attempts over the past two decades.
Based on comprehensive data analysis, the former minister’s claim that Nigeria’s power generation peaked at over 6,000MW during his tenure remains unsubstantiated by verified industry records. While generation did approach the 6,000MW mark under optimal conditions, it did not exceed this threshold as claimed in Adelabu’s resignation letter.
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10 Comments
The power sector is a complex and politically charged issue in Nigeria. It’s important to rely on impartial, verifiable data rather than unsubstantiated claims, even from high-ranking officials. This report seems to strike a balanced, objective tone.
Absolutely. Fact-checking and transparency are vital, especially for critical infrastructure like electricity. Looking forward to seeing how this issue progresses and whether the discrepancies can be resolved.
Interesting to see the discrepancies between the minister’s claims and the industry data. It’s important to verify high-profile power generation statistics, especially in a developing market like Nigeria. Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds.
Absolutely, transparency and accountability around electricity infrastructure are crucial. Curious to hear the minister’s response to the contradictory data.
Nigeria has ambitious targets for expanding its power generation capacity, but these claims need to be backed up by credible, verifiable information. Fact-checking is key to ensuring accurate reporting on the country’s energy progress.
Well said. Reliable electricity is critical for Nigeria’s economic development, so it’s important that the public has an accurate understanding of the true state of the power sector.
This highlights the challenges of improving power infrastructure in developing countries. While the government’s efforts are commendable, the discrepancies between claims and data raise concerns about transparency and accountability. Rigorous fact-checking is essential.
I agree. Achieving sustainable, reliable electricity in Nigeria will require not just investment, but also strengthening institutional capacity and oversight. Fact-based reporting is a crucial first step.
This is an important story that highlights the need for rigorous data collection and verification, especially around high-profile government claims. Nigeria’s power sector is a crucial area for development, and accurate information is essential for progress.
Well said. Fact-based reporting is key to holding leaders accountable and ensuring the public has a clear understanding of the country’s energy landscape. Curious to see how this unfolds going forward.