Russian Disinformation Campaign Targets Estonia with Fabricated ISW Videos

Russian propagandists continue to exploit Western organizations’ credibility to spread disinformation, according to a recent investigation by Postimees. A fabricated video circulating on social media falsely claims to be from the respected U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), spreading alarming conspiracy theories about European leaders.

The deceptive 47-second clip suggests that European politicians are planning terrorist attacks within their own countries to blame Russia and justify increased defense spending. The video sandwiches this false narrative between genuine ISW footage, creating the illusion of authenticity while spreading unfounded claims designed to sow fear and division across the European Union.

Journalists who analyzed the video found that while it begins and ends with legitimate ISW material, the central portion consists of fabricated slides alleging that sources close to EU leadership have warned of planned provocations. The video displays photos of EU leaders, Ukrainian officials, and Donald Trump with captions insinuating European officials are behind these supposed attacks.

The disinformation attempt also tries to undermine Western credibility by portraying a U.S. military operation in Venezuela as evidence of double standards, suggesting this hypocrisy makes it difficult for European “propaganda” to demonize Russia effectively. Technical analysis revealed no creator information in the metadata, and the content appears on none of ISW’s official channels.

Investigators traced the video’s origin to a Telegram channel called “Shaman Rahu,” which has over 30,000 followers and regularly distributes pro-Kremlin and conspiracy-laden content. The channel is operated by Dmitry Valeryevich Kochetkov, who describes himself as a writer and reserve captain. Notably, Kochetkov has received recognition from Russia’s Ministry of Defense for supporting military operations against Ukraine.

This incident represents just one in a series of similar attacks on ISW’s credibility. In December 2025, Russian actors created a fake suggesting Ukrainian involvement in an Australian attack, while a May fabrication falsely claimed President Zelensky had requested a 30-day ceasefire due to catastrophic losses.

Media analysts identified several telltale signs of the forgery. Genuine ISW videos consistently feature live presenters, while the fake consisted merely of a slideshow. The creators also inadvertently used an outdated “Donate Today” graphic that ISW had replaced on December 1, 2025. ISW has previously addressed such incidents, confirming awareness of videos illegally appropriating their brand and urging audiences to verify information through official channels only.

Marek Kohva, program director at the International Centre for Defence Studies, explained that such tactics deliberately leverage established organizations’ authority. “These videos are crafted specifically for quick social media consumption,” Kohva noted. “Short format, emotional claims, and AI-generated voices help bypass casual verification and sow doubt about factual reporting.”

While identifying specific creators remains challenging, experts believe these operations are strategically directed by Russian state entities—including the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and security services—and implemented through a network of contractors.

The disinformation campaigns primarily target major European nations such as Germany, France, and Poland, alongside neighboring states including Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland. These countries are particularly vulnerable because security concerns are likely to generate anxiety and erode trust in government institutions.

To combat such disinformation, experts recommend checking videos against official websites, verifying information in written reports, and watching for technical editing flaws. Estonia has taken concrete steps by establishing a parliamentary commission to study Russian influence operations, with the goal of protecting society from external destabilization efforts and strengthening public confidence in governmental institutions.