AI Dominance Race Intensifies Between Global Powers, Experts Warn

The question is no longer whether artificial intelligence will reshape the global order, but how quickly—and at what cost. Throughout 2025, technological breakthroughs from both the United States and China accelerated the competition for AI supremacy between the superpowers, while nations worldwide scrambled to build data centers and energy infrastructure supporting AI development.

The AI boom propelled Nvidia to become the first company to exceed a five trillion dollar valuation, despite growing concerns about circular financing and whether the AI revolution is built more on hype than substance. Meanwhile, policymakers struggled to balance safety, security, and innovation while preparing for potential labor market disruptions.

As 2026 begins, rapid AI integration threatens to inject even more unpredictability into an already fragmented global landscape. Atlantic Council technology experts have identified several key trends likely to shape the year ahead.

Perhaps most concerning is the rise of what experts call “AI poisoning.” Russia’s Pravda network of websites has published millions of articles targeting more than eighty countries, seemingly designed to influence AI web crawlers that gather training data. This strategy has proven effective, with Russian propaganda appearing in Wikipedia, social media, and responses from major chatbots.

“In 2026, the issue of AI poisoning will break into the mainstream,” warns Emerson Brooking, director of strategy at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. “Because of a roughly two-year lag in AI training data, these AI-targeted propaganda campaigns are about to start manifesting more often.”

On the geopolitical front, the United States is expected to double down on exporting its tech stack as the cornerstone of its international AI strategy. In December 2025, President Donald Trump allowed Nvidia to export advanced H200 chips to China, signaling that America wins when the world builds with U.S. technology.

“In 2026, expect to see the United States sign more AI-focused partnerships like those forged with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2025, alongside efforts to counter China’s growing influence in emerging markets,” notes Tess deBlanc-Knowles, senior director of Atlantic Council Technology Programs.

However, China maintains key advantages, particularly in open-source AI models and applied AI technologies, which could prove decisive in capturing global market share through free models and deployment-ready technologies.

The year is also expected to mark AI governance’s first truly global phase through United Nations-backed initiatives. Nearly all nations now have a forum to debate AI’s risks, norms, and coordination mechanisms, recognizing AI as a shared global concern.

Yet this international cooperation unfolds amid acute geopolitical tension, with the EU pushing rights-based regulation, the United States favoring voluntary standards, and China promoting cooperation while defending state control over data and AI deployment.

“By the end of 2026, the Global Dialogue will likely have made AI governance global in form but geopolitical in substance,” predicts Konstantinos Komaitis, a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Democracy + Tech Initiative.

Chinese companies like DeepSeek are expected to continue challenging Western AI dominance, with China doubling down on its open-source AI strategy to influence global AI infrastructure. Trade disputes over rare earth minerals crucial for AI development may intensify, potentially making Latin America the next technology battleground between the United States and China.

Meanwhile, human-AI interaction is expected to challenge human judgment and identity more profoundly than ever before. The increasing sophistication of AI-generated content combined with today’s polarized information environment creates unprecedented challenges for distinguishing fact from fiction.

As AI capabilities grow, many countries are pursuing “sovereign AI” initiatives to control their technological destinies. India’s sovereign large language model is set to launch in February 2026, reflecting a broader trend of nations seeking AI independence to strengthen domestic economies, protect national security, and reflect national values.

This push for control will likely evolve into what experts call a “battle of the AI stacks” – competing approaches to how core digital AI-enabling infrastructure functions. The U.S., EU, and China are all developing distinct technological ecosystems, forcing other nations to navigate these increasingly rivalrous approaches.

Perhaps most alarmingly, China is expected to intensify its AI-enabled disinformation efforts, particularly targeting Taiwan. These operations increasingly blend AI-generated content with human-curated messaging and commercial infrastructure, making them harder to detect and attribute.

As 2026 unfolds, the race for AI dominance appears set to reshape not just technology, but the fundamental balance of global power.