Gasoline Prices Surge 31 Cents in a Week as Iran War Disrupts Oil Supply

The price of regular gasoline has jumped 31 cents in the past week, reaching a national average of $4.48 per gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA. This latest spike represents a 50% increase since the outbreak of the war with Iran, hitting American consumers hard at the pump.

The primary driver behind rising fuel costs is the ongoing global energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict. Crude oil, which accounts for roughly 51% of gasoline’s retail price, has been steadily climbing for nearly two months due to severe supply disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil normally flows, has effectively been shut down. Oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to deliver their cargo to global markets.

“There’s a fundamental shortfall that will exist globally or fundamental struggle to meet that demand that will drive up price,” explained Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy. “No matter what a government says or what any market person thinks, there is a true kind of upward pressure that’s being exerted on prices every day the Strait of Hormuz is constrained. And it is still severely constrained.”

A brief period of optimism emerged in mid-April when signs pointed to a potential resolution of the conflict. Gasoline prices responded by falling for nearly two consecutive weeks.

“After the announcement of the initial ceasefire, there was kind of optimism that this really could be the beginning of the end of the conflict,” Smith said. “And so crude prices came down correspondingly, gasoline spot prices followed, and so on and… the retailers lowered prices as well.”

That optimism was short-lived. As fighting continued, gasoline prices reversed course and began climbing again, culminating in the sharp 31-cent increase over the past week.

Multiple Factors Behind Gasoline Pricing

While individual gas station owners set prices at the pump, several components influence those decisions. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil represented about 51% of U.S. gasoline prices in 2025.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption in oil market history, pushing crude prices as high as $112 per barrel in early April.

Bob Kleinberg, adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, compared U.S. gasoline prices with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and found a clear correlation.

“Not much of a mystery here,” Kleinberg noted. “It’s not exactly proportional but the shape of the curves follows the same pattern, and really with very little delay.”

Beyond crude oil costs, federal and state taxes contribute approximately 17% to gasoline prices. Refining costs and profits account for another 14%, while distribution and marketing make up the remaining 17%, according to EIA data. In states like California, higher taxes and refining costs push prices well above the national average.

U.S. Actions Impact Global Oil Market

A significant development occurred in April when the United States blocked Iranian ports, preventing the country from exporting oil. This action further constrained global supply and put additional upward pressure on prices.

“Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, so that was helping moderate prices,” said Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “The Trump administration decides they’re going to punish Iran, and try to put more pressure on Iran by blocking their exports, so of course that does put pressure on Iran, but also puts pressure on global oil prices and forces them up. That was probably a big factor.”

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments. “The oil market is exquisitely sensitive to what’s coming out of the White House,” Kleinberg explained.

The current price jump follows a pattern seen during previous conflicts. In early March, when the Iran war began, gasoline prices spiked 48 cents in a single week. The largest weekly increase on record occurred in March 2022, when prices jumped 60 cents following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

No Quick Resolution in Sight

Experts warn that prices may continue rising with no immediate relief in sight. Current prices already exceed those from early May 2022—a year that saw gasoline costs continue climbing through the Memorial Day weekend.

Even if the conflict were resolved immediately, the effects would linger. “Even if there was a true and lasting resolution of the conflict, both sides agree to play nice and truly do commit to keeping Hormuz open, it will still take months to get back to what it was pre-war, if not even longer,” Smith cautioned.

The industry will likely maintain a risk premium for shipping through the region for the foreseeable future. “It’ll be a long time before anyone can be convinced” that risk levels have returned to pre-war conditions, Smith concluded.